Xia Changfa, Yu Xue Qin, Zheng Rongshou, Zhang Siwei, Zeng Hongmei, Wang Jinfeng, Liao Yilan, Zou Xiaonong, Zuo Tingting, Yang Zhixun, Chen Wanqing
National Office for Cancer Prevention and Control, National Cancer Center/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, 100021, China.
Cancer Council New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, 2011, Australia; Sydney School of Public Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, 2006, Australia.
Cancer Lett. 2017 Aug 10;401:33-38. doi: 10.1016/j.canlet.2017.04.016. Epub 2017 Apr 24.
We fitted generalized linear models using data from three national retrospective surveys on cause of death in China to explore the spatial and temporal patterns of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) mortality over the period 1973 to 2005. The results suggest that there was a significant decrease in NPC mortality in China over time (p < 0.0001), the mortality rate ratio (RR) for the two later time periods were 0.59 (95% CI: 0.55-0.64) for 1990-1992 and 0.42 (95% CI: 0.39-0.45) for 2004-2005 compared to that of 1973-1975. Residents living in the South China areas have an elevated risk of mortality from NPC compared to those living in North China across all three time periods, with the RR being 4.96 (95% CI: 4.31-5.70) in 1973-1975, 12.83 (95% CI: 10.73-15.34) in 1990-1992 and 15.20 (95% CI: 12.34-18.72) in 2004-2005. Although NPC mortality in most areas of China has reduced to very low levels, the widening geographical disparities in NPC mortality are still noteworthy. It may be necessary to target public health policies to address the widening geographical disparities in NPC mortality.
我们利用中国三次全国死因回顾性调查的数据拟合了广义线性模型，以探讨1973年至2005年期间鼻咽癌（NPC）死亡率的时空模式。结果表明，中国NPC死亡率随时间显著下降（p < 0.0001），与1973 - 1975年相比，后两个时间段的死亡率比（RR）分别为：1990 - 1992年为0.59（95%置信区间：0.55 - 0.64），2004 - 2005年为0.42（95%置信区间：0.39 - 0.45）。在所有三个时间段内，与居住在中国北方的居民相比，居住在华南地区的居民死于NPC的风险更高，1973 - 1975年RR为4.96（95%置信区间：4.31 - 5.70），1990 - 1992年为12.83（95%置信区间：10.73 - 15.34），2004 - 2005年为15.20（95%置信区间：12.34 - 18.72）。尽管中国大部分地区的NPC死亡率已降至非常低的水平，但NPC死亡率在地理上的差距不断扩大仍值得关注。可能有必要制定公共卫生政策来解决NPC死亡率在地理上不断扩大的差距问题。
