Haslacher Helmuth, Ratzinger Franz, Perkmann Thomas, Batmyagmar Delgerdalai, Nistler Sonja, Scherzer Thomas M, Ponocny-Seliger Elisabeth, Pilger Alexander, Gerner Marlene, Scheichenberger Vanessa, Kundi Michael, Endler Georg, Wagner Oswald F, Winker Robert
Department of Laboratory Medicine, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
Department of Public Health, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
PLoS One. 2017 May 5;12(5):e0177174. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0177174. eCollection 2017.
Endurance sports are enjoying greater popularity, particularly among new target groups such as the elderly. Predictors of future physical capacities providing a basis for training adaptations are in high demand. We therefore aimed to estimate the future physical performance of elderly marathoners (runners/bicyclists) using a set of easily accessible standard laboratory parameters. To this end, 47 elderly marathon athletes underwent physical examinations including bicycle ergometry and a blood draw at baseline and after a three-year follow-up period. In order to compile a statistical model containing baseline laboratory results allowing prediction of follow-up ergometry performance, the cohort was subgrouped into a model training (n = 25) and a test sample (n = 22). The model containing significant predictors in univariate analysis (alanine aminotransferase, urea, folic acid, myeloperoxidase and total cholesterol) presented with high statistical significance and excellent goodness of fit (R2 = 0.789, ROC-AUC = 0.951±0.050) in the model training sample and was validated in the test sample (ROC-AUC = 0.786±0.098). Our results suggest that standard laboratory parameters could be particularly useful for predicting future physical capacity in elderly marathoners. It hence merits further research whether these conclusions can be translated to other disciplines or age groups.
耐力运动越来越受欢迎，尤其是在老年人等新的目标群体中。人们迫切需要能够为训练调整提供依据的未来身体能力预测指标。因此，我们旨在通过一组易于获取的标准实验室参数来估计老年马拉松运动员（跑步者/骑自行车者）未来的身体表现。为此，47名老年马拉松运动员在基线时和三年随访期后接受了身体检查，包括自行车测力计测试和采血。为了编制一个包含基线实验室结果的统计模型，以预测随访时的测力计测试表现，该队列被分为模型训练组（n = 25）和测试样本组（n = 22）。在单变量分析中包含显著预测指标（丙氨酸转氨酶、尿素、叶酸、髓过氧化物酶和总胆固醇）的模型在模型训练样本中具有高度统计学意义和良好的拟合优度（R2 = 0.789，ROC-AUC = 0.951±0.050），并在测试样本中得到验证（ROC-AUC = 0.786±0.098）。我们的结果表明，标准实验室参数对于预测老年马拉松运动员未来的身体能力可能特别有用。因此，这些结论是否可以推广到其他学科或年龄组值得进一步研究。
