Solow Andrew R
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2017 Jun 19;372(1723). doi: 10.1098/rstb.2016.0136.
There is growing interest in identifying the impacts of extreme climate events on natural systems. Two principles of such detection are that it should be based on a scientific understanding of the processes by which climate affects the system of interest and that non-climate factors that also affect the system should be controlled for. Using a simple temperature-dependent predator-prey model, this paper illustrates the importance of these principles in the context of establishing a link between temperature and population extremes. The results suggest that a naive approach based only on the co-occurrence of temperature and population extremes may fail. In the second part of the paper, some reasons for focusing attention on the ecological impacts of extreme climate events are briefly reviewed. It is suggested that, while extreme ecological events may be important for society, this does not imply that an analysis aimed at connecting them to extreme climate events should necessarily be based on extreme events themselves.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'.
人们越来越关注识别极端气候事件对自然系统的影响。这种检测的两个原则是，它应基于对气候影响相关系统的过程的科学理解，并且还应控制那些也会影响该系统的非气候因素。本文使用一个简单的温度依赖型捕食者 - 猎物模型，说明了这些原则在建立温度与种群极值之间联系的背景下的重要性。结果表明，仅基于温度和种群极值同时出现的简单方法可能会失败。在本文的第二部分，简要回顾了关注极端气候事件生态影响的一些原因。研究表明，虽然极端生态事件可能对社会很重要，但这并不意味着旨在将它们与极端气候事件联系起来的分析必然要基于极端事件本身。本文是主题为“对极端气候事件的行为、生态和进化反应”的特刊的一部分。
