Zhang Mei, Jiang Yong, Wang Li Min, Li Yi Chong, Huang Zheng Jing, Li Jian Hong, Zhou Mai Geng, Zhao Wen Hua
National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China.
Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100050, China.
Biomed Environ Sci. 2017 Apr;30(4):244-254. doi: 10.3967/bes2017.034.
To establish the distribution of 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk among Chinese adults.
We estimated the 10-year ASCVD risk by applying the 2013 American College of Cardiology/ American Heart Association pooled cohort equations (PCEs) to the data obtained from the 2010 China Chronic Disease and Risk Factor Surveillance that involved 61,541 participants (representing 520,158,652 Chinese adults) aged 40-79 years. We also compared the ASCVD risk with the 10-year ischemic cardiovascular disease (ICVD) risk, which was calculated using the simplified scoring tables recommended by the Chinese Guidelines for Prevention of Cardiovascular Diseases (Chinese model).
Based on the PCEs, the average 10-year ASCVD risk among adults without self-reported stroke or myocardial infraction was 12.5%. Approximately 247 million (47.4%) and 107 million (20.6%) adults had ⋝ 7.5% and > 20% 10-year ASCVD risks, respectively. The 10-year ASCVD risk > 20% was higher among men, less educated individuals, smokers, drinkers, and physically inactive individuals than among their counterparts. Overall, 29.0% of adults categorized using the Chinese model were overclassified with the PCEs.
Our results define the distribution of 10-year ASCVD risk among Chinese adults. The 10-year ASCVD risk predicted by the PCEs was higher than the ICVD risk predicted by the Chinese model.
确定中国成年人中10年动脉粥样硬化性心血管疾病（ASCVD）风险的分布情况。
我们将2013年美国心脏病学会/美国心脏协会合并队列方程（PCEs）应用于从2010年中国慢性病与危险因素监测中获取的数据，对61541名年龄在40 - 79岁的参与者（代表520158652名中国成年人）进行分析，以此估算10年ASCVD风险。我们还将ASCVD风险与10年缺血性心血管疾病（ICVD）风险进行了比较，后者是使用《中国心血管病防治指南》推荐的简化评分表（中国模型）计算得出的。
根据PCEs，在没有自我报告中风或心肌梗死的成年人中，平均10年ASCVD风险为12.5%。分别约有2.47亿（47.4%）和1.07亿（20.6%）成年人的10年ASCVD风险≥7.5%和>20%。10年ASCVD风险>20%的情况在男性、受教育程度较低者、吸烟者、饮酒者和缺乏身体活动的个体中高于其对应人群。总体而言，使用中国模型分类的成年人中有29.0%被PCEs过度分类。
我们的结果确定了中国成年人中10年ASCVD风险的分布情况。PCEs预测的10年ASCVD风险高于中国模型预测的ICVD风险。
