Mattern Thomas, Meyer Stefan, Ellenberg Ursula, Houston David M, Darby John T, Young Melanie, van Heezik Yolanda, Seddon Philip J
Department of Zoology, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand.
Department of Ecology, Environment and Evolution, La Trobe University, Melbourne, Australia.
PeerJ. 2017 May 16;5:e3272. doi: 10.7717/peerj.3272. eCollection 2017.
Climate change is a global issue with effects that are difficult to manage at a regional scale. Yet more often than not climate factors are just some of multiple stressors affecting species on a population level. Non-climatic factors-especially those of anthropogenic origins-may play equally important roles with regard to impacts on species and are often more feasible to address. Here we assess the influence of climate change on population trends of the endangered Yellow-eyed penguin () over the last 30 years, using a Bayesian model. Sea surface temperature (SST) proved to be the dominating factor influencing survival of both adult birds and fledglings. Increasing SST since the mid-1990s was accompanied by a reduction in survival rates and population decline. The population model showed that 33% of the variation in population numbers could be explained by SST alone, significantly increasing pressure on the penguin population. Consequently, the population becomes less resilient to non-climate related impacts, such as fisheries interactions, habitat degradation and human disturbance. However, the extent of the contribution of these factors to declining population trends is extremely difficult to assess principally due to the absence of quantifiable data, creating a discussion bias towards climate variables, and effectively distracting from non-climate factors that can be managed on a regional scale to ensure the viability of the population.
气候变化是一个全球性问题，其影响在区域尺度上难以管理。然而，气候因素往往只是在种群水平上影响物种的多种压力源中的一部分。非气候因素——尤其是人为起源的因素——在对物种的影响方面可能发挥同样重要的作用，而且往往更易于解决。在此，我们使用贝叶斯模型评估了过去30年气候变化对濒危黄眼企鹅（ ）种群趋势的影响。海表面温度（SST）被证明是影响成年企鹅和幼雏生存的主导因素。自20世纪90年代中期以来，海表面温度的上升伴随着生存率的下降和种群数量的减少。种群模型显示，种群数量变化的33%仅可由海表面温度解释，这显著增加了企鹅种群面临的压力。因此，该种群对与气候无关的影响（如渔业相互作用、栖息地退化和人类干扰）的恢复力下降。然而，这些因素对种群数量下降趋势的贡献程度极难评估，主要原因是缺乏可量化的数据，这导致了对气候变量的讨论偏差，并有效地转移了人们对可在区域尺度上加以管理以确保种群生存能力的非气候因素的注意力。
