Changes in the spatial and temporal pattern of natural forest cover on Hainan Island from the 1950s to the 2010s: implications for natural forest conservation and management.

The study of the past, present, and future state and dynamics of the tropical natural forest cover (NFC) might help to better understand the pattern of deforestation and fragmentation as well as the influence of social and natural processes. The obtained information will support the development of effective conservation policies and strategies. In the present study, we used historical data of the road network, topography, and climatic productivity to reconstruct NFC maps of Hainan Island, China, from the 1950s to the 2010s, using the random forest algorithm. We investigated the spatial and temporal patterns of NFC change from the 1950s to the 2010s and found that it was highly dynamic in both space and time. Our data showed that grid cells with low NFC were more vulnerable to NFC decrease, suggesting that conservation actions regarding natural forests need to focus on regions with low NFC and high ecological value. We also identified the hot spots of NFC change, which provides insights into the dynamic changes of natural forests over time.