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百草枯禁令对除草剂中毒相关死亡率的影响。

Effects of Paraquat Ban on Herbicide Poisoning-Related Mortality.

作者信息

Ko Dong Ryul, Chung Sung Phil, You Je Sung, Cho Soohyung, Park Yongjin, Chun Byeongjo, Moon Jeongmi, Kim Hyun, Kim Yong Hwan, Kim Hyun Jin, Lee Kyung Woo, Choi SangChun, Park Junseok, Park Jung Soo, Kim Seung Whan, Seo Jeong Yeol, Park Ha Young, Kim Su Jin, Kang Hyunggoo, Hong Dae Young, Hong Jung Hwa

机构信息

Department of Emergency Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Gangnam Severance Hospital, Seoul, Korea.

Department of Emergency Medicine, College of Medicine, Chosun University, Gwangju, Korea.

出版信息

Yonsei Med J. 2017 Jul;58(4):859-866. doi: 10.3349/ymj.2017.58.4.859.

Abstract

PURPOSE

In Korea, registration of paraquat-containing herbicides was canceled in November 2011, and sales thereof were completely banned in November 2012. We evaluated the effect of the paraquat ban on the epidemiology and mortality of herbicide-induced poisoning.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This retrospective study analyzed patients treated for herbicide poisoning at 17 emergency departments in South Korea between January 2010 and December 2014. The overall and paraquat mortality rates were compared pre- and post-ban. Factors associated with herbicide mortality were evaluated using logistic analysis. To determine if there were any changes in the mortality rates before and after the paraquat sales ban and the time point of any such significant changes in mortality, R software, version 3.0.3 (package, bcp) was used to perform a Bayesian change point analysis.

RESULTS

We enrolled 2257 patients treated for herbicide poisoning (paraquat=46.8%). The overall and paraquat poisoning mortality rates were 40.6% and 73.0%, respectively. The decreased paraquat poisoning mortality rate (before, 75% vs. after, 67%, p=0.014) might be associated with increased intentionality. The multivariable logistic analysis revealed the paraquat ban as an independent predictor that decreased herbicide poisoning mortality (p=0.035). There were two major change points in herbicide mortality rates, approximately 3 months after the initial paraquat ban and 1 year after complete sales ban.

CONCLUSION

This study suggests that the paraquat ban decreased intentional herbicide ingestion and contributed to lowering herbicide poisoning-associated mortality. The change point analysis suggests a certain timeframe was required for the manifestation of regulatory measures outcomes.

摘要

目的

在韩国,含百草枯除草剂于2011年11月被取消登记,并于2012年11月被全面禁止销售。我们评估了百草枯禁令对除草剂中毒的流行病学和死亡率的影响。

材料与方法

这项回顾性研究分析了2010年1月至2014年12月期间在韩国17个急诊科接受除草剂中毒治疗的患者。比较了禁令前后的总体死亡率和百草枯死亡率。使用逻辑分析评估与除草剂死亡率相关的因素。为了确定百草枯销售禁令前后死亡率是否有任何变化以及死亡率发生任何显著变化的时间点,使用R软件3.0.3版本(包,bcp)进行贝叶斯变化点分析。

结果

我们纳入了2257例接受除草剂中毒治疗的患者(百草枯中毒患者占46.8%)。总体中毒死亡率和百草枯中毒死亡率分别为40.6%和73.0%。百草枯中毒死亡率的下降(之前为75%,之后为67%,p = 0.014)可能与故意性增加有关。多变量逻辑分析显示百草枯禁令是降低除草剂中毒死亡率的独立预测因素(p = 0.035)。除草剂死亡率有两个主要变化点,分别在百草枯最初禁令后约3个月和全面销售禁令后1年。

结论

本研究表明,百草枯禁令减少了故意摄入除草剂的行为,并有助于降低与除草剂中毒相关的死亡率。变化点分析表明,监管措施的效果需要一定的时间框架才能显现。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/309a/5447120/3f78eb95f742/ymj-58-859-g001.jpg

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