Kashnitsky Ilya, de Beer Joop, van Wissen Leo
Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands.
National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia.
Genus. 2017;73(1):2. doi: 10.1186/s41118-017-0018-2. Epub 2017 May 10.
In the face of rapidly aging population, decreasing regional inequalities in population composition is one of the regional cohesion goals of the European Union. To our knowledge, no explicit quantification of the changes in regional population aging differentiation exist. We investigate how regional differences in population aging developed over the last decade and how they are likely to evolve in the coming three decades, and we examine how demographic components of population growth contribute to the process. We use the beta-convergence approach to test whether regions are moving towards a common level of population aging. The change in population composition is decomposed into the separate effects of changes in the size of the non-working-age population and of the working-age population. The latter changes are further decomposed into the effects of cohort turnover, migration at working ages, and mortality at working ages. European Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS)-2 regions experienced notable convergence in population aging during the period 2003-2012 and are expected to experience further convergence in the coming three decades. Convergence in aging mainly depends on changes in the population structure of East-European regions. Cohort turnover plays the major role in promoting convergence. Differences in mortality at working ages, though quite moderate themselves, have a significant cumulative effect. The projections show that when it is assumed that net migration flows at working ages are converging across European regions, this will not contribute to convergence of population aging. The beta-convergence approach proves useful to examine regional variations in population aging across Europe.
面对人口迅速老龄化，减少区域人口构成不平等是欧盟区域凝聚力目标之一。据我们所知，目前尚无对区域人口老龄化差异变化的明确量化研究。我们调查了过去十年区域人口老龄化差异是如何发展的，以及未来三十年可能如何演变，并研究了人口增长的人口学组成部分对这一过程有何贡献。我们采用β收敛方法来检验各区域是否正在趋向于一个共同的人口老龄化水平。人口构成的变化被分解为非劳动年龄人口规模变化和劳动年龄人口规模变化的单独影响。后者的变化进一步分解为队列更替、劳动年龄人口迁移和劳动年龄人口死亡率的影响。欧洲统计领土单位命名法（NUTS）-2区域在2003年至2012年期间人口老龄化出现了显著趋同，预计在未来三十年还将进一步趋同。老龄化趋同主要取决于东欧地区人口结构的变化。队列更替在促进趋同方面起主要作用。劳动年龄人口死亡率的差异虽然本身相当温和，但有显著的累积效应。预测表明，假设劳动年龄人口的净移民流动在欧洲各区域趋同，这不会促进人口老龄化的趋同。β收敛方法被证明有助于研究欧洲各地人口老龄化的区域差异。
