Rathi S K, Desai V K, Jariwala P, Desai H, Naik A, Joseph A
Urban Health and Climate Resilience Centre, Surat, Gujarat, India.
Health Department, Surat Municipal Corporation, Surat, Gujarat, India.
Indian J Community Med. 2017 Apr-Jun;42(2):111-115. doi: 10.4103/0970-0218.205216.
Ample information is available on extreme heat associated mortality for few Indian cities, but scant literature is available on effect of temperature on spatial variability of all-cause mortality for coastal cities.
To assess the effect of daily maximum temperature, relative humidity and heat index on spatial variability of all-cause mortality for summer months (March to May) from 2014 to 2015 for the urban population of Surat (coastal) city.
Retrospective analysis of the all-cause mortality data with temperature and humidity was performed on a total of 9,237 deaths for 184 summer days (2014-2015). Climatic and all-cause mortality data were obtained through Tutiempo website and Surat Municipal Corporation respectively. Bivariate analysis performed through SPSS.
Mean daily mortality was estimated at 50.2 ± 8.5 for the study period with a rise of 20% all-cause mortality at temperature ≥ 40°C and rise of 10% deaths per day during extreme danger level (HI: > 54°C) days. Spatial (Zone wise) analysis revealed rise of 61% all-cause mortality for Southeast and 30% for East zones at temperature ≥ 40°C.
All-cause mortality increased on high summer temperature days. Presence of spatial variation in all-cause mortality provided the evidence for high risk zones. Findings may be helpful in designing the interventions at micro level.
关于印度少数城市与极端高温相关的死亡率有大量信息，但关于温度对沿海城市全因死亡率空间变异性影响的文献却很少。
评估2014年至2015年夏季月份（3月至5月）苏拉特（沿海）市城市人口的日最高温度、相对湿度和热指数对全因死亡率空间变异性的影响。
对184个夏季日（2014 - 2015年）共9237例死亡的全因死亡率数据与温度和湿度进行回顾性分析。气候数据和全因死亡率数据分别通过Tutiempo网站和苏拉特市政公司获取。通过SPSS进行双变量分析。
研究期间平均每日死亡率估计为50.2±8.5，在温度≥40°C时全因死亡率上升20%，在极端危险水平（热指数：>54°C）的日子里每天死亡人数上升10%。空间（按区域）分析显示，在温度≥40°C时，东南区域全因死亡率上升61%，东部区域上升30%。
夏季高温日全因死亡率增加。全因死亡率存在空间差异，为高风险区域提供了证据。研究结果可能有助于在微观层面设计干预措施。
