Nottingham University Business School, Jubilee Campus, Wollaton Road, Nottingham, NG8 1BB, United Kingdom.
School of Health and Related Research, University of Sheffield, Regent Court, Sheffield, S1 4DA, United Kingdom.
J Health Econ. 2017 Jul;54:135-146. doi: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2017.05.002. Epub 2017 May 17.
In recent years, English local authorities have been forced to make significant cuts to devolved expenditure. In this paper, we examine the impact of reductions in local expenditure on one particular public health target: reducing rates of teen pregnancy. Contrary to predictions made at the time of the cuts, panel data estimates provide no evidence that areas which reduced expenditure the most have experienced relative increases in teenage pregnancy rates. Rather, expenditure cuts are associated with small reductions in teen pregnancy rates, a result which is robust to a number of alternative specifications and tests for causality. Underlying socio-economic factors such as education outcomes and alcohol consumption are found to be significant predictors of teen pregnancy.
近年来，英国地方当局被迫大幅削减权力下放支出。本文研究了地方支出减少对特定公共卫生目标（降低青少年怀孕率）的影响。与削减支出时的预测相反，面板数据估计没有表明支出减少最多的地区相对增加了青少年怀孕率。相反，支出削减与青少年怀孕率的小幅下降有关，这一结果在许多替代规范和因果关系检验中都是稳健的。研究发现，教育成果和酒精消费等潜在社会经济因素是青少年怀孕的重要预测因素。
