SUBSTITUTION PROCESSES IN MOLECULAR EVOLUTION. II. EXCHANGEABLE MODELS FROM POPULATION GENETICS.

Substitution processes are of two sorts: origination processes record the times at which nucleotide mutations that ultimately fix in the population first appear, and fixation processes record the times at which they actually fix. Substitution processes may be generated by combining models of population genetics-here the symmetrical-neutral, overdominance, underdominance, TIM, and SAS-CFF models-with the infinite-sites, no-recombination model of the gene. This paper is mainly concerned with a computer simulation study of these substitution processes. The rate of substitution is shown to be remarkably insensitive to the strength of selection for models with strong balancing selection caused by the genealogical drift of mutations through alleles held in the population by selection. The origination process is shown to be more regular than Poisson for the overdominance, TIM, and SAS-CFF models but more clustered for the underdominance model. A class of point processes called Sawyer processes is introduced to help explain these observations as well as the observation that the times between successive originations are nearly uncorrelated. Fixation processes are shown to be more complex than origination processes, with regularly spaced bursts of multiple fixations. An approximation to the fixation process is described. One important conclusion is that protein evolution is not easily reconciled with any of these models without adding perturbations that recur on a time scale that is commensurate with that of molecular evolution.