Luckman Ashley, Donkin Chris, Newell Ben R
School of Psychology, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.
Center for Economic Psychology, Department of Psychology, University of Basel, Missionsstrasse 62a, 4055, Basel, Switzerland.
Psychon Bull Rev. 2018 Apr;25(2):785-792. doi: 10.3758/s13423-017-1330-8.
There is growing interest in modelling how people make choices that involve both risks and delays, i.e., risky inter-temporal choices. We investigated an untested assumption underlying several proposed risky inter-temporal choice models: that pure risky choices and pure inter-temporal choices are special cases of risky inter-temporal choice. We tested this assumption by presenting a single group of participants with risky choices and inter-temporal choices. We then compared the performance of a model that is fit to both choice types simultaneously, with the performance of separate models fit to the risky choice and inter-temporal choice data. We find, using Bayesian model comparison, that the majority of participants are best fit by a single model that incorporates both risky and inter-temporal choices. This result supports the assumption that risky choices and inter-temporal choices may be special cases of risky inter-temporal choice. Our results also suggest that, under the conditions of our experiment, interpretation of monetary value is very similar in risky choices and inter-temporal choices.
人们对模拟人们如何做出涉及风险和延迟的选择（即风险跨期选择）的兴趣与日俱增。我们研究了几个提出的风险跨期选择模型所基于的一个未经检验的假设：纯风险选择和纯跨期选择是风险跨期选择的特殊情况。我们通过向一组参与者呈现风险选择和跨期选择来检验这个假设。然后，我们将同时适用于两种选择类型的模型的性能，与分别适用于风险选择和跨期选择数据的模型的性能进行了比较。我们使用贝叶斯模型比较发现，大多数参与者最适合由一个同时包含风险和跨期选择的单一模型来拟合。这一结果支持了风险选择和跨期选择可能是风险跨期选择的特殊情况这一假设。我们的结果还表明，在我们的实验条件下，货币价值在风险选择和跨期选择中的解释非常相似。
