Belay Denekew Bitew, Kifle Yehenew Getachew, Goshu Ayele Taye, Gran Jon Michael, Yewhalaw Delenasaw, Duchateau Luc, Frigessi Arnoldo
School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, College of Natural and Computational Science, Hawassa University, Hawassa, Ethiopia.
Department of Statistics and Operations Research, University of Limpopo, Limpopo, South Africa.
BMC Infect Dis. 2017 Jun 12;17(1):415. doi: 10.1186/s12879-017-2496-4.
This paper studies the effect of mosquito abundance and malaria incidence in the last 3 weeks, and their interaction, on the hazard of time to malaria in a previously studied cohort of children in Ethiopia.
We model the mosquito abundance and time to malaria data jointly in a Bayesian framework.
We found that the interaction of mosquito abundance and incidence plays a prominent role on malaria risk. We quantify and compare relative risks of various factors, and determine the predominant role of the interaction between incidence and mosquito abundance in describing malaria risk. Seasonal rain patterns, distance to a water source of the households, temperature and relative humidity are all significant in explaining mosquito abundance, and through this affect malaria risk.
Analyzing jointly the time to malaria data and the mosquito abundance allows a precise comparison of factors affecting the spread of malaria. The effect of the interaction between mosquito abundances and local presence of malaria parasites has an important effect on the hazard of time to malaria, beyond abundance alone. Each additional one km away from the dam gives an average reduction of malaria relative risk of 5.7%. The importance of the interaction between abundance and incidence leads to the hypothesis that preventive intervention could advantageously target the infectious population, in addition to mosquito control, which is the typical intervention today.
本文研究了埃塞俄比亚一个先前研究的儿童队列中过去3周内蚊子数量和疟疾发病率及其相互作用对疟疾发病时间风险的影响。
我们在贝叶斯框架下联合对蚊子数量和疟疾发病时间数据进行建模。
我们发现蚊子数量与发病率的相互作用对疟疾风险起着显著作用。我们量化并比较了各种因素的相对风险，并确定了发病率与蚊子数量之间的相互作用在描述疟疾风险方面的主要作用。季节性降雨模式、家庭与水源的距离、温度和相对湿度在解释蚊子数量方面都具有显著性，并由此影响疟疾风险。
联合分析疟疾发病时间数据和蚊子数量能够精确比较影响疟疾传播的因素。蚊子数量与当地疟原虫存在之间的相互作用的影响，除了数量本身之外，对疟疾发病时间风险也具有重要影响。距离大坝每增加1公里，疟疾相对风险平均降低5.7%。数量与发病率之间相互作用的重要性导致这样一种假设，即除了作为当今典型干预措施的蚊子控制之外，预防性干预可以有利地针对感染人群。
