Center for Systems Integration and Sustainability, Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University, East Lansing, 48823, USA.
College of Water Resources and Civil Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing, 100083, China.
Sci Rep. 2017 Jun 12;7(1):3258. doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-03297-5.
Climate variability and trends have significant environmental and socioeconomic impacts. Global challenges such as food security, biodiversity loss, water scarcity and human health are affected by reference evapotranspiration, temperature, solar radiation, and precipitation together, but nonlinear dynamics of these four climatic factors have not been assessed simultaneously at the national scale. This leads to unclear climatic dynamics and limited applications. To address this knowledge gap, we analyzed the daily variability and trends of four climatic factors (reference evapotranspiration, temperature, solar radiation, and precipitation) in China simultaneously using high spatial resolution data from 1960 to 2013. The results indicate that the daily variability of climate system dynamics (quantified by multiplying fractal dimensions of the four climatic factors) in north China was higher than that in south China. For example, the climate system dynamics were more chaotic and with higher nonlinear variation in north China, most notably in Heilongjiang Province, the major grain base of China, posing threats to food security in the context of growing national population. Spatial distribution of variability varies among different climatic factors. Our study highlights the need for a more holistic study of climate variability and trends in other countries with multiple climate types to address challenges of sustainable development.
气候变化及其趋势对环境和社会经济具有重大影响。参考蒸散量、温度、太阳辐射和降水共同影响着全球面临的粮食安全、生物多样性丧失、水资源短缺和人类健康等挑战，但这些气候因素的非线性动态尚未在国家范围内同时进行评估。这导致气候动态不明确，应用受限。为了解决这一知识差距，我们利用 1960 年至 2013 年高空间分辨率数据，同时分析了中国四个气候因素（参考蒸散量、温度、太阳辐射和降水）的日变化和趋势。结果表明，中国北方气候系统动态的日变化（通过四个气候因素分形维数的乘积来量化）高于南方。例如，中国北方的气候系统动态更加混乱，非线性变化更高，在黑龙江省尤为显著，而黑龙江省是中国的主要粮食基地，这对在全国人口不断增长的背景下的粮食安全构成了威胁。不同气候因素的可变性空间分布存在差异。本研究强调需要对具有多种气候类型的其他国家进行更全面的气候可变性和趋势研究，以应对可持续发展的挑战。
