College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, 712100, China; Key Laboratory of Agricultural Soil and Water Engineering in Arid and Semiarid Areas, Ministry of Education, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, China.
Key Laboratory of Agricultural Soil and Water Engineering in Arid and Semiarid Areas, Ministry of Education, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, China; Institute of Water Saving Agriculture in Arid regions of China, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2017 Jul 1;589:165-172. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.02.122. Epub 2017 Mar 1.
Agriculture is very sensitive to climate change, and correct forecasting of climate change is a great help to accurate allocation of irrigation water. The use of irrigation water is influenced by crop water demand and precipitation. Potential evapotranspiration (ET) is a measure of the ability of the atmosphere to remove water from the surface through the processes of evaporation and transpiration, assuming no control on water supply. It plays an important role in assessing crop water requirements, regional dry-wet conditions, and other factors of water resource management. This study analyzed the spatial and temporal evolution processes and characteristics of major meteorological parameters at 10 stations in the Loess Plateau of northern Shaanxi (LPNS). By using the Mann-Kendall trend test with trend-free pre-whitening and the ArcGIS platform, the potential evapotranspiration of each station was quantified by using the Penman-Monteith equation, and the effects of climatic factors on potential evapotranspiration were assessed by analyzing the contribution rate and sensitivity of the climatic factors. The results showed that the climate in LPNS has become warmer and drier. In terms of the sensitivity of ET to the variation of each climatic factor in LPNS, relative humidity (0.65) had the highest sensitivity, followed by daily maximum temperature, wind speed, sunshine hours, and daily minimum temperature (-0.05). In terms of the contribution rate of each factor to ET, daily maximum temperature (5.16%) had the highest value, followed by daily minimum temperature, sunshine hours, relative humidity, and wind speed (1.14%). This study provides a reference for the management of agricultural water resources and for countermeasures to climate change. According to the climate change and the characteristics of the study area, farmers in the region should increase irrigation to guarantee crop water demand.
农业对气候变化非常敏感，准确预测气候变化对精确分配灌溉水有很大帮助。灌溉用水受作物需水量和降水量的影响。潜在蒸散量（ET）是衡量大气通过蒸发和蒸腾过程从地表去除水分的能力的指标，假设对供水没有控制。它在评估作物需水量、区域干湿状况和水资源管理的其他因素方面发挥着重要作用。本研究分析了陕北黄土高原 10 个站点主要气象参数的时空演变过程和特征。通过使用具有趋势自由预白化的 Mann-Kendall 趋势检验和 ArcGIS 平台，使用 Penman-Monteith 方程量化了每个站点的潜在蒸散量，并通过分析气候因素对潜在蒸散量的贡献率和灵敏度来评估气候因素对潜在蒸散量的影响。结果表明，黄土高原地区的气候变得更加温暖和干燥。就 ET 对 LPNS 中每个气候因素变化的敏感性而言，相对湿度（0.65）具有最高的敏感性，其次是日最高温度、风速、日照时数和日最低温度（-0.05）。就各因素对 ET 的贡献率而言，日最高温度（5.16%）最高，其次是日最低温度、日照时数、相对湿度和风速（1.14%）。本研究为农业水资源管理和应对气候变化的对策提供了参考。根据气候变化和研究区域的特点，该地区的农民应增加灌溉以保证作物需水量。
