Harper Sam, Bruckner Tim A
Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics & Occupational Health, The Institute for Health and Social Policy, and the Department of Economics, McGill University, Montreal, Canada and Program in Public Health, University of California, Irvine.
Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics & Occupational Health, The Institute for Health and Social Policy, and the Department of Economics, McGill University, Montreal, Canada and Program in Public Health, University of California, Irvine.
Ann Epidemiol. 2017 Jul;27(7):409-414.e6. doi: 10.1016/j.annepidem.2017.05.017. Epub 2017 Jun 1.
Research suggests that the Great Recession of 2007-2009 led to nearly 5000 excess suicides in the United States. However, prior work has not accounted for seasonal patterning and unique suicide trends by age and gender.
We calculated monthly suicide rates from 1999 to 2013 for men and women aged 15 and above. Suicide rates before the Great Recession were used to predict the rate during and after the Great Recession. Death rates for each age-gender group were modeled using Poisson regression with robust variance, accounting for seasonal and nonlinear suicide trajectories.
There were 56,658 suicide deaths during the Great Recession. Age- and gender-specific suicide trends before the recession demonstrated clear seasonal and nonlinear trajectories. Our models predicted 57,140 expected suicide deaths, leading to 482 fewer observed than expected suicides (95% confidence interval -2079, 943).
We found little evidence to suggest that the Great Recession interrupted existing trajectories of suicide rates. Suicide rates were already increasing before the Great Recession for middle-aged men and women. Future studies estimating the impact of recessions on suicide should account for the diverse and unique suicide trajectories of different social groups.
研究表明，2007 - 2009年的大衰退导致美国有近5000例额外自杀事件。然而，先前的研究并未考虑季节性模式以及按年龄和性别划分的独特自杀趋势。
我们计算了1999年至2013年15岁及以上男性和女性的月度自杀率。大衰退之前的自杀率用于预测大衰退期间及之后的自杀率。使用具有稳健方差的泊松回归对每个年龄 - 性别组的死亡率进行建模，同时考虑季节性和非线性自杀轨迹。
大衰退期间有56,658例自杀死亡。衰退前按年龄和性别划分的自杀趋势呈现出明显的季节性和非线性轨迹。我们的模型预测有57,140例预期自杀死亡，实际观察到的自杀死亡比预期少482例（95%置信区间 -2079, 943）。
我们几乎没有发现证据表明大衰退中断了现有的自杀率轨迹。在大衰退之前，中年男性和女性的自杀率就已经在上升。未来估计衰退对自杀影响的研究应考虑不同社会群体多样且独特的自杀轨迹。
