Soleymani Mehdi, Yip Paul S F
Department of Statistics, The University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand.
Department of Social Work and Social Administration, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong.
J Appl Stat. 2019 Aug 2;47(4):666-684. doi: 10.1080/02664763.2019.1650008. eCollection 2020.
The Asian economic crises of 1997 and the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) had far-reaching impacts on Asian and other global economies. Turmoil in the banking and finance sectors led to downturns in stock markets, resulting in bankruptcies, house repossessions and high unemployment. These crises have been shown to be correlated with a deterioration in mental health and an increase in suicides, and it is important to understand the implication of these impacts and how such recessions affect the health of affected populations. With the benefit of hindsight, did lessons learned from the negative effects of the 1997 Asian economic recession impact the aftermath of the 2008 GFC in Asian countries? Utilising a framework based on a simple strata-bootstrap algorithm using daily data - where available - we investigate the trend in suicide rates over time in three different populations (Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea), and examine whether there were any changes in the pattern of suicide rates in each country subsequent to both the 1997 Asian and 2008. We find that each country responded differently to each of the crises and the suicide rates for certain age-gender specific groups in each country were more affected.
1997年的亚洲经济危机和2008年的全球金融危机（GFC）对亚洲及其他全球经济体产生了深远影响。银行和金融部门的动荡导致股市低迷，进而引发破产、房屋被收回以及高失业率。这些危机已被证明与心理健康恶化和自杀率上升相关，了解这些影响的含义以及此类衰退如何影响受影响人群的健康非常重要。事后看来，从1997年亚洲经济衰退的负面影响中吸取的教训是否影响了2008年全球金融危机在亚洲国家的后果？利用一个基于简单分层自举算法的框架，使用每日数据（如有），我们调查了三个不同人群（香港、台湾和韩国）随时间推移的自杀率趋势，并研究了1997年亚洲危机和2008年危机之后每个国家自杀率模式是否有任何变化。我们发现，每个国家对每次危机的反应都不同，每个国家特定年龄性别群体的自杀率受到的影响更大。
