Department of Environmental and Life Sciences, Division of Risk Management, Karlstad University, Karlstad, Sweden.
Centre for Public Safety, Karlstad University, Karlstad, Sweden.
Inj Prev. 2018 Jun;24(3):193-198. doi: 10.1136/injuryprev-2017-042322. Epub 2017 Jun 19.
To estimate the effects of fire safe cigarette laws on fire mortality and cigarette-related fires in the USA.
We examined the gradual implementation of the laws to identify their average effects, using difference-in-differences analysis to account for common year effects, time-invariant state effects, state-specific trends and observable time-varying state-level covariates.
We found no statistically significant effects on all-cause fire mortality, residential fire mortality or cigarette-caused fire rates. The estimates for cigarette-caused fire deaths were significant under some specifications, but were not robust to the inclusion of state-specific trends or comparisons to effects on other cause-determined fires.
Given the mixed state of our results, we conclude that previous claims regarding the effects of fire safe cigarette laws may be premature.
评估美国防火安全香烟法对火灾死亡率和与香烟有关的火灾的影响。
我们通过观察差异分析来识别法律的逐步实施对其平均效果的影响，以考虑常见的年度影响、时间不变的州效、州内特定趋势和可观察的随时间变化的州级协变量。
我们没有发现这些法律对全因火灾死亡率、住宅火灾死亡率或香烟引起的火灾率有统计学意义上的显著影响。在某些特定情况下，香烟引起的火灾死亡的估计值是显著的，但在纳入州内特定趋势或与其他原因引起的火灾的影响进行比较后，这些结果并不稳健。
鉴于我们的研究结果存在差异，我们得出结论，此前关于防火安全香烟法的影响的说法可能还为时过早。
