Wang Cuicui, Jin Jia, Vieito João Paulo, Ma Qingguo
School of Management, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei, China.
Neuromanagement Lab, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China.
Comput Intell Neurosci. 2017;2017:4760930. doi: 10.1155/2017/4760930. Epub 2017 May 28.
Using event-related potentials, this study investigated how financial herding or antiherding affected the valuation of subsequent outcomes. For each trial, subjects decided whether to buy the stock according to its net money flow information which could be used to reflect the strength of buying power or selling power of the stock. The return on investment (ROI) as feedback included the increase or decrease percentage after subjects' responses. Results showed that, compared with herding, antiherding induced larger discrepancies of FRN and P300 amplitude between positive ROI and negative ROI, indicating that individuals under antiherding condition had stronger motivation and paid more attention in the evaluation process of ROI. Moreover, only for positive ROI, the amplitudes of FRN and P300 were modulated by two kinds of behaviors. We suggested that individuals making antiherd decisions were more confident with their own ability and choices, which reduced the positive outcome prediction error and gave more mental resources to evaluate positive outcome. However, negative outcomes evoked no different motivational meaning and negative emotion for individuals between herding and antiherding. The study may provide new insights into neurocognitive processes of herding and antiherding in financial market.
本研究运用事件相关电位，探究了金融羊群行为或反羊群行为如何影响对后续结果的估值。在每一次试验中，受试者根据股票的资金净流入信息决定是否购买该股票，该信息可用于反映股票的买入或卖出力量强度。作为反馈的投资回报率（ROI）包括受试者做出反应后的涨跌百分比。结果显示，与羊群行为相比，反羊群行为在正投资回报率和负投资回报率之间诱发的FRN和P300波幅差异更大，这表明处于反羊群行为状态下的个体在投资回报率评估过程中有更强的动机且更为关注。此外，仅在正投资回报率情况下，FRN和P300的波幅受两种行为的调节。我们认为，做出反羊群决策的个体对自身能力和选择更有信心，这减少了积极结果预测误差，并为评估积极结果投入了更多心理资源。然而，对于个体而言，负结果在羊群行为和反羊群行为之间并未引发不同的动机意义和负面情绪。该研究可能为金融市场中羊群行为和反羊群行为的神经认知过程提供新的见解。
