Some problems in the prediction of future numbers of cases of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in the UK.

The outbreak of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in the UK has great implications for health services, and predictions of future numbers of cases have been requested. There is not enough information to make a good estimate of the future epidemic curve, but the trend in new cases can be extrapolated and leads to a predicted number of new cases in the range 460 to 7300 in 1988, with a possible 700 patients from earlier years still alive and needing care at the beginning of 1988.