Anderson R M, Medley G F, Blythe S P, Johnson A M
Lancet. 1987 May 9;1(8541):1073-5. doi: 10.1016/s0140-6736(87)90493-4.
A mathematical model of the dynamics of transmission of human immunodeficiency virus within the male homosexual population in the United Kingdom demonstrates that even the minimum size of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) epidemic in the United Kingdom (based upon the assumption that all transmission ceased at the end of 1986) is difficult to predict. Model predictions are particularly sensitive to assumptions about the distributed incubation period of the disease, differences in frequency and patterns of sexual activity, and the proportion of infected people in whom AIDS later develops. More accurate predictions will depend on the collection of data on the incubation period of the disease, the infectiousness of infected persons, and on the numbers of new sexual partners of each sex per person and the duration of each partnership.
一个关于人类免疫缺陷病毒在英国男性同性恋人群中传播动态的数学模型表明，即便要预测英国后天免疫机能丧失综合症（艾滋病）流行的最小规模（基于所有传播在1986年底停止这一假设）也很困难。模型预测对有关该疾病分布潜伏期的假设、性活动频率和模式的差异以及后来发展成艾滋病的感染者比例特别敏感。更准确的预测将取决于收集有关该疾病潜伏期、感染者传染性的数据，以及取决于每个人不同性别的新性伴侣数量和每次性伴侣关系的持续时间。
