Hamblin April L, Youngsteadt Elsa, López-Uribe Margarita M, Frank Steven D
Department of Entomology and Plant Pathology, North Carolina State University, Campus Box 7613, Raleigh, NC 27695, USA.
Department of Entomology, Center for Pollinator Research, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA.
Biol Lett. 2017 Jun;13(6). doi: 10.1098/rsbl.2017.0125.
Changes in community composition are an important, but hard to predict, effect of climate change. Here, we use a wild-bee study system to test the ability of critical thermal maxima (CT, a measure of heat tolerance) to predict community responses to urban heat-island effects in Raleigh, NC, USA. Among 15 focal species, CT ranged from 44.6 to 51.3°C, and was strongly predictive of population responses to urban warming across 18 study sites ( = 0.44). Species with low CT declined the most. After phylogenetic correction, solitary species and cavity-nesting species (bumblebees) had the lowest CT, suggesting that these groups may be most sensitive to climate change. Community responses to urban and global warming will likely retain strong physiological signal, even after decades of warming during which time lags and interspecific interactions could modulate direct effects of temperature.
群落组成的变化是气候变化的一个重要但难以预测的影响。在此，我们使用一个野生蜜蜂研究系统来测试临界热最大值（CT，一种耐热性指标）预测美国北卡罗来纳州罗利市城市热岛效应下群落反应的能力。在15个重点物种中，CT范围为44.6至51.3°C，并且能强烈预测18个研究地点种群对城市变暖的反应（r = 0.44）。CT较低的物种下降最多。经过系统发育校正后，独居物种和洞穴筑巢物种（熊蜂）的CT最低，这表明这些类群可能对气候变化最为敏感。即使在经历了数十年的变暖之后，群落对城市变暖和全球变暖的反应可能仍会保留强烈的生理信号，在此期间，时间滞后和种间相互作用可能会调节温度的直接影响。
