Buckner Mark A, Hoge Steven T, Danforth Bryan N
Department of Entomology Cornell University Ithaca New York USA.
Ecol Evol. 2024 Nov 29;14(12):e70638. doi: 10.1002/ece3.70638. eCollection 2024 Dec.
The Mojave and Sonoran Deserts, recognized as a global hotspot for bee biodiversity, are experiencing habitat degradation from urbanization, utility-scale solar energy (USSE) development, and climate change. In this study, we evaluated the current and future distribution of bee diversity, assessed how protected areas safeguard bee species richness, and predicted how global change may affect bees across the region. Using Joint Species Distribution Models (JSDMs) of 148 bee species, we project changes in species distributions, occurrence area, and richness under four global change scenarios between 1971 and 2050. We evaluated the threat posed by USSE development and predicted how climate change will affect the suitability of protected areas for conservation. Our findings indicate that changes in temperature and precipitation do not uniformly affect bee richness. Lower elevation protected areas are projected to experience mean losses of up to 5.8 species, whereas protected areas at higher elevations and transition zones may gain up to 7.8 species. Areas prioritized for future USSE development have an average species richness of 4.2 species higher than the study area average, and lower priority "variance" areas have 8.2 more species. USSE zones are expected to experience declines of up to 8.0 species by 2050 due to climate change alone. Despite the importance of solitary bees for pollination, their diversity is often overlooked in land management decisions. Our results show the utility of JSDMs for leveraging existing collection records to ease the inclusion of data-limited insect species in land management decision-making.
莫哈韦沙漠和索诺兰沙漠被公认为蜜蜂生物多样性的全球热点地区，正经历着城市化、公用事业规模太阳能（USSE）开发和气候变化导致的栖息地退化。在本研究中，我们评估了蜜蜂多样性的当前和未来分布，评估了保护区如何保护蜜蜂物种丰富度，并预测了全球变化可能如何影响该地区的蜜蜂。利用148种蜜蜂的联合物种分布模型（JSDMs），我们预测了1971年至2050年四种全球变化情景下物种分布、出现区域和丰富度的变化。我们评估了USSE开发带来的威胁，并预测了气候变化将如何影响保护区的保护适宜性。我们的研究结果表明，温度和降水的变化并不会均匀地影响蜜蜂的丰富度。预计海拔较低的保护区平均将损失多达5.8个物种，而海拔较高的保护区和过渡区可能增加多达7.8个物种。未来USSE开发优先考虑的区域平均物种丰富度比研究区域平均水平高4.2种，而低优先级的“差异”区域则多8.2种。仅由于气候变化，预计到2050年，USSE区域的物种数量将减少多达8.0种。尽管独居蜜蜂对授粉很重要，但它们的多样性在土地管理决策中常常被忽视。我们的结果表明了JSDMs在利用现有收集记录以促进将数据有限的昆虫物种纳入土地管理决策方面的效用。
