Probst Charlotte, Manthey Jakob, Rehm Jürgen
Institute for Mental Health Policy Research, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health (CAMH), 33 Russell Street, Toronto, ON M5S 2S1, Canada; Institute for Clinical Psychology and Psychotherapy, Technische Universität Dresden, Chemnitzer Str. 46, 01187 Dresden, Germany.
Institute for Clinical Psychology and Psychotherapy, Technische Universität Dresden, Chemnitzer Str. 46, 01187 Dresden, Germany.
Drug Alcohol Depend. 2017 Sep 1;178:126-129. doi: 10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2017.05.008. Epub 2017 Jun 15.
The level of alcohol consumption and related burden in a country are strongly impacted by the prevalence of abstinence from alcohol use. The objective of this study was to characterize the association of lifetime abstinence from alcohol use with economic wealth (as measured in the gross domestic product [GDP]) and Muslim religion on a country level.
An ecological study was performed using aggregate data of 183 countries for the year 2010. Lifetime abstinence among men and women was predicted using fractional response regression models with the natural logarithm of GDP-PPP (purchasing power parity) and the proportion of Muslim population as predictors. The models were further adjusted by the country's median age and World Health Organization region. Precision of prediction was investigated.
Descriptive analyses showed a strong negative association between GDP-PPP and lifetime abstinence in countries without a Muslim majority and a GDP-PPP up to 20,000 international dollars. Regression models confirmed the negative association with GDP-PPP and showed a strong positive association between lifetime abstinence and the proportion of Muslim population. Stratified sensitivity analyses showed that in countries without a Muslim majority only GDP-PPP showed a statistically significant association whereas in Muslim majority countries only the proportion of Muslims was associated with the prevalence of lifetime abstinence.
Particularly in countries with a lower GDP and without Muslim majority the prevalence of lifetime abstinence from alcohol use is strongly negatively associated with GDP-PPP. Future research should analyze the accordance in trends of GDP and lifetime abstinence over time.
一个国家的酒精消费水平及相关负担受到戒酒流行率的强烈影响。本研究的目的是在国家层面上描述终生戒酒与经济财富（以国内生产总值[GDP]衡量）和穆斯林宗教之间的关联。
利用2010年183个国家的汇总数据进行了一项生态研究。使用以GDP-购买力平价（PPP）的自然对数和穆斯林人口比例作为预测变量的分数响应回归模型来预测男性和女性的终生戒酒情况。模型进一步根据国家的年龄中位数和世界卫生组织区域进行了调整。对预测精度进行了研究。
描述性分析显示，在非穆斯林占多数且GDP-PPP高达20,000国际美元的国家中，GDP-PPP与终生戒酒之间存在强烈的负相关。回归模型证实了与GDP-PPP的负相关，并显示终生戒酒与穆斯林人口比例之间存在强烈的正相关。分层敏感性分析表明，在非穆斯林占多数的国家中，只有GDP-PPP显示出统计学上的显著关联，而在穆斯林占多数的国家中，只有穆斯林比例与终生戒酒流行率相关。
特别是在GDP较低且非穆斯林占多数的国家，终生戒酒的流行率与GDP-PPP呈强烈负相关。未来的研究应分析GDP和终生戒酒随时间变化趋势的一致性。
