Heckman James J, García Jorge Luís
Center for the Economics of Human Development; Department of Economics, University of Chicago; American Bar Foundation.
Center for the Economics of Human Development; Department of Economics, University of Chicago.
Nat Hum Behav. 2017;1. doi: 10.1038/s41562-016-0019. Epub 2017 Jan 10.
By linking data from a 40-year birth cohort study with multiple administrative databases, Caspi and colleagues show that 20% of the population accounts for 60% - 80% of several adult social ills. Outcomes for this group can be accurately predicted from as early as age 3, using a small set of indicators of disadvantage. This finding supports policies that target children from disadvantaged families and complements recent literature on the life-cycle benefits of early childhood programmes.
通过将一项为期40年的出生队列研究数据与多个行政数据库相链接,卡斯皮及其同事表明,20%的人口占了几种成人社会弊病的60%至80%。利用一小套劣势指标,早在3岁时就能准确预测该群体的结果。这一发现支持了针对弱势家庭儿童的政策,并补充了近期关于幼儿项目生命周期益处的文献。