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2000 - 2015年巴西的艾滋病毒/艾滋病死亡率:是否有令人担忧的理由?

HIV/AIDS Mortality in Brazil, 2000-2015: Are there reasons for concern?

作者信息

Guimarães Mark Drew Crosland, Carneiro Mariângela, Abreu Daisy Maria Xavier de, França Elisabeth Barboza

机构信息

Grupo de Pesquisas em Epidemiologia e Avaliação em Saúde, Departamento de Medicina Preventiva e Social, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais - Belo Horizonte (MG), Brasil.

Departamento de Parasitologia, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais - Belo Horizonte (MG), Brasil.

出版信息

Rev Bras Epidemiol. 2017 May;20Suppl 01(Suppl 01):182-190. doi: 10.1590/1980-5497201700050015.

DOI:10.1590/1980-5497201700050015
PMID:28658382
Abstract

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVE

: Mortality studies are essential for the monitoring of the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Quality and completeness of data from the mortality information system (SIM) require complementary approaches.

METHODS

: Two sources of data were used to assess mortality trends due to HIV/AIDS in Brazil from 2000 and 2014/15: a) data from the SIM published by the Department of STDs, AIDS, and viral hepatitis, and b) Global Burden of Disease 2015 (GBD 2015) studies. Descriptive analyses were carried out and trends in relative reduction of age-adjusted mortality rates per 100,000 inhabitants were compared according to the two methods.

RESULTS

: Overall, the magnitude of the mortality rates estimated by the GBD method, for Brazil and its Federative Units (FU), was greater than those obtained from the SIM. The relative reduction was higher for SIM data and there were shifts in the ranking according to the FUs. Between 2000 and 2014/15 there was an increase in the mortality rates for most of the FUs (78 and 88% according to the SIM and GBD, respectively).

CONCLUSION

: Data regarding mortality due to HIV/AIDS in Brazil should be of concern, regardless of the method used. Differences in magnitude, relative reductions, and ranking can be attributed to methodological differences, but the GBD is broader, with a higher capacity to capture incorrectly classified data and causes of death not registered or not coded as being due to HIV/AIDS. Alternative and complementary data sources can provide important information for HIV/AIDS public policies in Brazil.

摘要

引言与目的

死亡率研究对于监测艾滋病毒/艾滋病疫情至关重要。死亡率信息系统(SIM)数据的质量和完整性需要采用补充方法。

方法

使用两个数据源评估2000年至2014/15年巴西因艾滋病毒/艾滋病导致的死亡率趋势:a)性传播感染、艾滋病和病毒性肝炎司公布的SIM数据,以及b)《2015年全球疾病负担》(GBD 2015)研究。进行了描述性分析,并根据这两种方法比较了每10万居民年龄调整死亡率的相对下降趋势。

结果

总体而言,GBD方法估计的巴西及其联邦单位(FU)的死亡率幅度大于从SIM获得的死亡率。SIM数据的相对下降幅度更高,并且各联邦单位的排名发生了变化。2000年至2014/15年期间,大多数联邦单位的死亡率有所上升(根据SIM和GBD分别为78%和88%)。

结论

无论采用何种方法,巴西艾滋病毒/艾滋病导致的死亡率数据都应受到关注。幅度、相对下降和排名的差异可归因于方法学差异,但GBD范围更广,能够捕捉错误分类的数据以及未登记或未编码为艾滋病毒/艾滋病导致的死亡原因的能力更强。替代和补充数据源可为巴西的艾滋病毒/艾滋病公共政策提供重要信息。

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