Duarte Elisa, de Sousa Bruno, Cadarso-Suárez Carmen, Klein Nadja, Kneib Thomas, Rodrigues Vítor
Unit of Biostatistics, Department of Statistics, Mathematical Analysis, and Optimization, School of Medicine University of Santiago de Compostela, C/ San Francisco s/n, 15782, Santiago de Compostela, Spain.
Faculty of Psychology and Education Sciences, University of Coimbra, CINEICC, Rua do Colégio Novo, Apartado 6153, 3001-802, Coimbra, Portugal.
Biom J. 2017 Nov;59(6):1232-1246. doi: 10.1002/bimj.201600245. Epub 2017 Jun 29.
Studies addressing breast cancer risk factors have been looking at trends relative to age at menarche and menopause. These studies point to a downward trend of age at menarche and an upward trend for age at menopause, meaning an increase of a woman's reproductive lifespan cycle. In addition to studying the effect of the year of birth on the expectation of age at menarche and a woman's reproductive lifespan, it is important to understand how a woman's cohort affects the correlation between these two variables. Since the behavior of age at menarche and menopause may vary with the geographic location of a woman's residence, the spatial effect of the municipality where a woman resides needs to be considered. Thus, a Bayesian multivariate structured additive distributional regression model is proposed in order to analyze how a woman's municipality and year of birth affects a woman's age of menarche, her lifespan cycle, and the correlation of the two. The data consists of 212,517 postmenopausal women, born between 1920 and 1965, who attended the breast cancer screening program in the central region of Portugal.
针对乳腺癌风险因素的研究一直在关注初潮年龄和绝经年龄的相关趋势。这些研究指出初潮年龄呈下降趋势，绝经年龄呈上升趋势，这意味着女性生殖寿命周期有所延长。除了研究出生年份对初潮年龄预期和女性生殖寿命的影响外，了解女性群体如何影响这两个变量之间的相关性也很重要。由于初潮年龄和绝经年龄的变化可能因女性居住的地理位置而异，因此需要考虑女性所在城市的空间效应。因此，本文提出了一种贝叶斯多元结构化加性分布回归模型，以分析女性所在城市和出生年份如何影响女性的初潮年龄、生殖寿命周期以及两者之间的相关性。数据包括212517名绝经后女性，她们出生于1920年至1965年之间，参加了葡萄牙中部地区的乳腺癌筛查项目。
