Effects of land use and climate change on ecosystem services in Central Asia's arid regions: A case study in Altay Prefecture, China.

The sustainable use of ecosystem services (ES) can contribute to enhancing human well-being. Understanding the effects of land use and climate change on ES can provide scientific and targeted guidance for the sustainable use of ES. The objective of this study was to reveal the way in which land use and climate change influence the spatial and temporal variations of ES in the mountain-oasis-desert system (MODS). In this study, we assessed water yield, soil conservation, crop production, and sand fixation in 1990, 2000, and 2010 in Altay Prefecture, which is representative of the MODS, based on widely used biophysical models. Moreover, we analyzed the effects of different land use and climate change conditions on ES. The results show that the area of forest and bare land decreased in Altay Prefecture. In contrast, the area of grassland with low coverage and cropland increased. The climate of this area presented an overall warming-wetting trend, with warming-drying and cooling-wetting phenomena in some areas. Soil conservation in the mountain zone, water yield in the oasis zone, and sand fixation in the desert zone all decreased under the influence of land use change alone. The warming-drying trend led to decreased water yield in the oasis zone and increased wind erosion in the desert zone. Based on the results, we recommend that local governments achieve sustainable use of ES by planting grasslands with high coverage in the oasis zone, increasing investment in agricultural science and technology, and establishing protected areas in the mountain and desert zones. The methodology in our study can also be applied to other regions with a MODS structure.