College of Geography and Environment, Shandong Normal University, No. 1, University Road, Changqing District, Jinan 250358, China.
Institute of Regional Economic Research, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan 250014, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Mar 24;19(7):3860. doi: 10.3390/ijerph19073860.
Land use/land cover (LULC) and climate change are major driving forces that impact ecosystem services and affect human well-being directly and indirectly. Under the future interaction between LULC and climate change, the impact of different land management and climate change scenarios on water-related services is uncertain. Based on this, the CLUMondo model, which focuses on land use intensity, was used to simulate the land system under different land management scenarios in the future. By coupling the downscaled climate scenario data, this study used the InVEST and RUSLE models to estimate the annual water yield and soil erosion in 2050 in the Hengduan Mountain region and analyzed the variation differences in different sub-watersheds. The results indicated that, under the influence of LULC and climate change, when compared with the amount for 2020, the soil erosion in the Hengduan Mountain region in 2050 was reduced by 1.83, 3.40, and 2.91% under the TREND scenario, FOREST scenario, and CONSERVATION scenario, respectively, while the water yield decreased by 5.05, 5.37, and 5.21%, respectively. Moreover, the change in soil erosion in the study area was affected by precipitation and closely related to the precipitation intensity, and the impact of climate change on the water yield was significantly greater than that of LULC change. The spatial heterogeneity of soil erosion and water yield was obvious at the sub-watershed scale. In the future, soil erosion control should be strengthened in the northern regions, while water resource monitoring and early warning should be emphasized in the central-eastern regions. Our results provide scientific guidance for policy makers to formulate better LULC policies to achieve regional water and soil balance and sustainable management.
土地利用/土地覆被（LULC）和气候变化是影响生态系统服务并直接或间接影响人类福祉的主要驱动力。在未来 LULC 和气候变化的相互作用下，不同土地管理和气候变化情景对与水相关的服务的影响是不确定的。基于此，本研究采用侧重于土地利用强度的 CLUMondo 模型，模拟未来不同土地管理情景下的土地系统。通过耦合降尺度的气候情景数据，本研究利用 IN VEST 和 RUSLE 模型估算了 2050 年横断山区的年水量和土壤侵蚀量，并分析了不同子流域的变化差异。结果表明，在 LULC 和气候变化的影响下，与 2020 年相比，TREND 情景、FOREST 情景和 CONSERVATION 情景下，2050 年横断山区的土壤侵蚀量分别减少了 1.83%、3.40%和 2.91%，而水量分别减少了 5.05%、5.37%和 5.21%。此外，研究区土壤侵蚀的变化受降水影响较大，与降水强度密切相关，气候变化对水量的影响明显大于 LULC 变化的影响。土壤侵蚀和水量的空间异质性在子流域尺度上较为明显。未来，应加强北部地区的土壤侵蚀控制，而中东部地区则应强调水资源监测和预警。本研究结果为决策者制定更好的 LULC 政策，实现区域水土平衡和可持续管理提供了科学指导。
