Guo Weijun
College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian, China.
Environ Pollut. 2017 Nov;230:945-953. doi: 10.1016/j.envpol.2017.07.051. Epub 2017 Jul 22.
To gain a better understanding of the impacts from potential risk sources, we developed an oil spill model using probabilistic method, which simulates numerous oil spill trajectories under varying environmental conditions. The statistical results were quantified from hypothetical oil spills under multiple scenarios, including area affected probability, mean oil slick thickness, and duration of water surface exposed to floating oil. The three sub-indices together with marine area vulnerability are merged to compute the composite index, characterizing the spatial distribution of risk degree. Integral of the index can be used to identify the overall risk from an emission source. The developed model has been successfully applied in comparison to and selection of an appropriate oil port construction location adjacent to a marine protected area for Phoca largha in China. The results highlight the importance of selection of candidates before project construction, since that risk estimation from two adjacent potential sources may turn out to be significantly different regarding hydrodynamic conditions and eco-environmental sensitivity.
为了更好地理解潜在风险源的影响，我们使用概率方法开发了一个溢油模型，该模型可在不同环境条件下模拟大量溢油轨迹。统计结果是根据多种情景下的假设溢油进行量化的，包括受影响面积概率、平均油膜厚度以及水面暴露于浮油的持续时间。这三个子指标与海洋区域脆弱性相结合，用于计算综合指数，以表征风险程度的空间分布。该指数的积分可用于识别排放源的总体风险。所开发的模型已成功应用于中国斑海豹海洋保护区附近合适油港建设地点的比较和选择。结果突出了项目建设前候选地点选择的重要性，因为两个相邻潜在源在水动力条件和生态环境敏感性方面的风险估计可能会有显著差异。
