Reinmuth Evelyn, Parker Phillip, Aurbacher Joachim, Högy Petra, Dabbert Stephan
Institute of Farm Management, Section Production Theory and Resource Economics, Universität Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany.
Institute of Farm and Agribusiness Management, Justus-Liebig-University Gießen, Gießen, Germany.
PLoS One. 2017 Aug 1;12(8):e0181954. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0181954. eCollection 2017.
In agricultural production, land-use decisions are components of economic planning that result in the strategic allocation of fields. Climate variability represents an uncertainty factor in crop production. Considering yield impact, climatic influence is perceived during and evaluated at the end of crop production cycles. In practice, this information is then incorporated into planning for the upcoming season. This process contributes to attitudes toward climate-induced risk in crop production. In the literature, however, the subjective valuation of risk is modeled as a risk attitude toward variations in (monetary) outcomes. Consequently, climatic influence may be obscured by political and market influences so that risk perceptions during the production process are neglected. We present a utility concept that allows the inclusion of annual risk scores based on mid-season risk perceptions that are incorporated into field-planning decisions. This approach is exemplified and implemented for winter wheat production in the Kraichgau, a region in Southwest Germany, using the integrated bio-economic simulation model FarmActor and empirical data from the region. Survey results indicate that a profitability threshold for this crop, the level of "still-good yield" (sgy), is 69 dt ha-1 (regional mean Kraichgau sample) for a given season. This threshold governs the monitoring process and risk estimators. We tested the modeled estimators against simulation results using ten projected future weather time series for winter wheat production. The mid-season estimators generally proved to be effective. This approach can be used to improve the modeling of planning decisions by providing a more comprehensive evaluation of field-crop response to climatic changes from an economic risk point of view. The methodology further provides economic insight in an agrometeorological context where prices for crops or inputs are lacking, but farmer attitudes toward risk should still be included in the analysis.
在农业生产中，土地利用决策是经济规划的组成部分，其结果是土地的战略分配。气候多变性是作物生产中的一个不确定因素。考虑到产量影响，在作物生产周期中会察觉到气候影响，并在周期结束时进行评估。在实践中，这些信息随后会被纳入下一季的规划中。这一过程影响了人们对作物生产中气候引发风险的态度。然而，在文献中，风险的主观估值被建模为对（货币）结果变化的风险态度。因此，气候影响可能会被政治和市场影响所掩盖，从而忽略了生产过程中的风险认知。我们提出了一个效用概念，该概念允许纳入基于季中风险认知的年度风险评分，并将其纳入田间规划决策。在德国西南部的克莱希高地区，我们使用综合生物经济模拟模型FarmActor和该地区的实证数据，对冬小麦生产进行了举例说明和实施。调查结果表明，对于给定季节，该作物的盈利阈值，即“仍良好产量”（sgy）水平为69公吨/公顷（克莱希高地区平均样本）。这个阈值控制着监测过程和风险估计器。我们使用十个预测的未来冬小麦生产天气时间序列，将建模的估计器与模拟结果进行了对比测试。季中估计器总体上证明是有效的。从经济风险的角度来看，这种方法可以通过更全面地评估田间作物对气候变化的反应，来改进规划决策的建模。该方法还在缺乏作物或投入价格，但分析仍应纳入农民风险态度的农业气象背景下提供了经济见解。
