1 Centre for Primary Care and Public Health, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK.
Int J Health Serv. 2017 Oct;47(4):807-825. doi: 10.1177/0020731417722888. Epub 2017 Aug 2.
This article investigates whether the United States' counterinsurgency operations have inhibited polio eradication efforts in northwestern Pakistan, the world's last major reservoir of polio. Anecdotal evidence suggests that militants disrupt polio vaccination programs because of suspicions that campaigns are a cover for gathering intelligence on Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) drone targets. This paper analyzes national-level quantitative data to test this argument. Between 2004 and 2012, the number of polio cases in Pakistan closely mirrored the number of drone strikes. But from 2013 onward, polio cases increased while drone strikes fell. This can be explained by the CIA's use of a fake immunization campaign in a failed attempt to obtain the DNA of Osama bin Laden's relatives prior to his assassination in 2011. This seemingly vindicated militants' suspicions that vaccination programs were a cover for espionage. Militants consequently intensified their disruption of immunization campaigns, resulting in an increase in polio cases in Pakistan, as well as in Afghanistan, Syria, and Iraq. For politicians and military planners, drones are attractive because they are said to harm fewer civilians than conventional methods of warfare. However, this paper demonstrates that drone strikes had negative effects on the well-being of civilians in Pakistan and further afield because they undermined global efforts to eradicate polio.
本文探讨了美国在巴基斯坦西北部（世界上最后一个小儿麻痹症的主要疫区）的反叛乱行动是否对小儿麻痹症的消除工作产生了影响。有传闻称，武装分子之所以破坏小儿麻痹症疫苗接种计划，是因为他们怀疑这些运动是为中央情报局（CIA）无人机目标收集情报的幌子。本文通过分析国家级的定量数据来检验这一论点。2004 年至 2012 年间，巴基斯坦的小儿麻痹症病例数量与无人机袭击的数量密切相关。但从 2013 年起，小儿麻痹症病例增加，而无人机袭击减少。这可以用 CIA 在 2011 年奥萨马·本·拉登被暗杀之前，使用一场虚假免疫运动试图获取他亲属 DNA 的失败尝试来解释。这似乎证实了武装分子的怀疑，即疫苗接种计划是间谍活动的掩护。武装分子随后加强了对免疫运动的破坏，导致巴基斯坦以及阿富汗、叙利亚和伊拉克的小儿麻痹症病例增加。对于政治家和军事规划者来说，无人机具有吸引力，因为据称它们比传统的战争手段造成的平民伤亡更少。然而，本文表明，无人机袭击对巴基斯坦和更远地区平民的福祉产生了负面影响，因为它们破坏了全球消除小儿麻痹症的努力。
