Kalogirou Stamatis, Murphy Michael
Department of Social Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, Houghton Street, London, WC2 2AE UK.
Eur J Ageing. 2006 Jun 1;3(2):74-81. doi: 10.1007/s10433-006-0030-4. eCollection 2006 Jun.
The marital status of older people has a number of socio-economic impacts. This paper presents key findings from a set of population projections for older people by age, sex and marital status for nine European countries. We use original data for national sources but we adjust the mortality and nuptiality rates for older ages by modelling existing cohort data. We then use robust assumptions for improvements in life expectancy at birth and we use these to constrain projection models. The projections refer to the period 2000-2030 and the following countries: Belgium, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, The Netherlands, Portugal and The United Kingdom. Similar trends will occur in all countries; married people will account for most of the increase among those aged 75 and older by 2030, followed by divorced men and women, who exhibit the highest proportional increase.
老年人的婚姻状况具有诸多社会经济影响。本文展示了一组针对九个欧洲国家按年龄、性别和婚姻状况划分的老年人口预测的主要结果。我们使用来自各国的原始数据，但通过对现有队列数据进行建模来调整老年人口的死亡率和结婚率。然后，我们对出生时预期寿命的提高采用稳健的假设，并以此来约束预测模型。这些预测涵盖2000年至2030年期间以及以下国家：比利时、捷克共和国、芬兰、法国、德国、意大利、荷兰、葡萄牙和英国。所有国家都会出现类似趋势；到2030年，75岁及以上人群中增加的大部分将是已婚者，其次是离婚男女，他们的比例增长最高。
