Gaymu Joëlle, Ekamper Peter, Beets Gijs
Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 133, Bd Davout, 75980 Paris Cedex, France.
Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, Lange Houtstraat 19, 2511CV The Hague, The Netherlands.
Eur J Ageing. 2008 Feb 16;5(1):5. doi: 10.1007/s10433-008-0072-x. eCollection 2008 Mar.
This article presents the results of projections of older people's living arrangements in 2030 in nine European countries. It analyses expected changes due to future trends in health and marital status. Future changes in the marital status of the older people will result in a higher proportion living in their own homes: women in each age group will more often grow old living with their partner, and this will also apply, to a lesser extent, to men aged 85 and over. Both men and women will be less likely to live alone, with people other than a partner, or in institutions. But for men aged 74-84 the likelihood of choosing one or another type of living arrangement will remain remarkably stable in the future. Further, an improvement in health will lead to older people living alone slightly more often, and they will also more often do so in good health. A comparison of two health scenarios shows that changes in marital status have a major impact on overall trends in living arrangements whereas an improvement in health-which is not certain to occur-will affect them only marginally.
本文展示了对九个欧洲国家2030年老年人居住安排的预测结果。它分析了由于未来健康和婚姻状况趋势而产生的预期变化。老年人婚姻状况的未来变化将导致更高比例的人居住在自己家中：每个年龄组的女性将更经常与伴侣一起变老，这在较小程度上也适用于85岁及以上的男性。男性和女性独自生活、与伴侣以外的人一起生活或住在机构中的可能性都会降低。但对于74 - 84岁的男性来说，未来选择一种或另一种居住安排的可能性将保持显著稳定。此外，健康状况的改善将导致老年人更频繁地独自生活，而且他们也更经常在健康状况良好的情况下这样做。两种健康情景的比较表明，婚姻状况的变化对居住安排的总体趋势有重大影响，而健康状况的改善——这不一定会发生——只会对它们产生轻微影响。
