Sharifi Hamid, Karamouzian Mohammad, Baneshi Mohammad Reza, Shokoohi Mostafa, Haghdoost AliAkbar, McFarland Willi, Mirzazadeh Ali
HIV/STI Surveillance Research Center, and WHO Collaborating Center for HIV Surveillance, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Faculty of Public Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
PLoS One. 2017 Aug 10;12(8):e0182755. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0182755. eCollection 2017.
Estimating the number of key populations at risk of HIV is essential for planning, monitoring, and evaluating prevention, care, and treatment programmes. We conducted this study to estimate the number of female sex workers (FSW) in major cities of Iran.
We used three population size estimation methods (i.e., wisdom of the crowds, multiplier method, and network scale-up) to calculate the number of FSW in 13 cities in Iran. The wisdom of the crowds and multiplier methods were integrated into a nationwide bio-behavioural surveillance survey in 2015, and the network scale-up method was included in a national survey of the general population in 2014. The median of the three methods was used to calculate the proportion of the adult female population who practice sex work in the 13 cities. These figures were then extrapolated to provide a national population size estimation of FSW across urban areas.
The population size of FSW was 91,500 (95% Uncertainty Intervals [UIs] 61,400-117,700), corresponding to 1.43% (95% UIs 0.96-1.84) of the adult (i.e., 15-49 year-old) female population living in these 13 cities. The projected numbers of FSW for all 31 provincial capital cities were 130,800 (95% UIs 87,800-168,200) and 228,700 (95% UIs 153,500-294,300) for all urban settings in Iran.
Using methods of comparable rigor, our study provided a data-driven national estimate of the population size of FSW in urban areas of Iran. Our findings provide vital information for enhancing HIV programme planning and lay a foundation for assessing the impact of harm reduction efforts within this marginalized population.
估计面临感染艾滋病毒风险的重点人群数量对于规划、监测和评估预防、护理及治疗方案至关重要。我们开展这项研究以估计伊朗主要城市中女性性工作者（FSW）的数量。
我们使用三种人口规模估计方法（即群体智慧法、乘数法和网络扩大法）来计算伊朗13个城市中女性性工作者的数量。群体智慧法和乘数法被纳入2015年全国生物行为监测调查，网络扩大法被纳入2014年全国普通人群调查。采用这三种方法的中位数来计算这13个城市中从事性工作的成年女性人口比例。然后外推这些数据以估计伊朗城市地区女性性工作者的全国人口规模。
女性性工作者的人口规模为91,500人（95%不确定区间[UI]为61,400 - 117,700），占居住在这13个城市的成年（即15 - 49岁）女性人口的1.43%（95% UI为0.96 - 1.84）。伊朗所有31个省会城市的女性性工作者预计数量为130,800人（95% UI为87,800 - 168,200），伊朗所有城市地区的预计数量为228,700人（95% UI为153,500 - 294,300）。
通过采用具有可比严谨性的方法，我们的研究提供了一个基于数据的伊朗城市地区女性性工作者人口规模的全国估计。我们的研究结果为加强艾滋病毒项目规划提供了重要信息，并为评估在这一边缘化人群中减少伤害努力的影响奠定了基础。
