Diminishing-returns epistasis decreases adaptability along an evolutionary trajectory.

Populations evolving in constant environments exhibit declining adaptability. Understanding the basis of this pattern could reveal underlying processes determining the repeatability of evolutionary outcomes. In principle, declining adaptability can be due to a decrease in the effect size of beneficial mutations, a decrease in the rate at which they occur, or some combination of both. By evolving Escherichia coli populations started from different steps along a single evolutionary trajectory, we show that declining adaptability is best explained by a decrease in the size of available beneficial mutations. This pattern reflected the dominant influence of negative genetic interactions that caused new beneficial mutations to confer smaller benefits in fitter genotypes. Genome sequencing revealed that starting genotypes that were more similar to one another did not exhibit greater similarity in terms of new beneficial mutations, supporting the view that epistasis acts globally, having a greater influence on the effect than on the identity of available mutations along an adaptive trajectory. Our findings provide support for a general mechanism that leads to predictable phenotypic evolutionary trajectories.