Carr-Hill R A, Hardman G F, Russell I T
Lancet. 1987 Apr 4;1(8536):789-92. doi: 10.1016/s0140-6736(87)92810-8.
It has been proposed that the effectiveness of medical treatment should be measured by mortality from specified diseases for which death is apparently avoidable given appropriate medical intervention. Unfortunately, that proposal was not supported by direct analysis of the relation between health care resources and avoidable mortality--an analysis which is essential for establishing the validity of avoidable mortality as an indicator of the outcome of health care. Thus the proposal does not yet have any basis, theoretical or practical. A more realistic but still oversimple model is now proposed. With presently available data, however, the validity of avoidable mortality is unlikely to be established, even by this model.
有人提议，医疗效果应以特定疾病的死亡率来衡量，对于这些疾病，在适当的医疗干预下死亡显然是可以避免的。不幸的是，该提议并未得到对医疗资源与可避免死亡率之间关系的直接分析的支持——这种分析对于确立可避免死亡率作为医疗结果指标的有效性至关重要。因此，该提议尚无任何理论或实践依据。现在提出一个更现实但仍然过于简单的模型。然而，就目前可得的数据而言，即使采用这个模型，可避免死亡率的有效性也不太可能确立。
