Plescia Carolina, Aichholzer Julian
Department of Government, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
J Elect Public Opin Parties. 2017 Jul 3;27(3):254-273. doi: 10.1080/17457289.2016.1270286. Epub 2016 Dec 26.
An expanding literature indicates that in multiparty systems with coalition governments, citizens consider the post-electoral bargaining process among parties when casting their vote. Yet, we know surprisingly little about the of voters' coalition preferences. This paper uses data from the Austrian National Election Study to examine the determinants as well as the independence of preferences for coalitions as political object. We find that coalition preferences are strongly informed by spatial considerations; but additional non-ideological factors, such as party and leader preferences, also play a fundamental role. We also find that coalitions enjoy a certain degree of independence from other objects of vote choice and they do not always represent a simple average score on the feeling thermometer of the constituent parties. There are, however, substantial differences among voters, with party identifiers and those with extreme ideology being less likely to consider coalitions as separate entities from their component parties.
越来越多的文献表明，在有联合政府的多党制中，公民在投票时会考虑政党选举后的讨价还价过程。然而，令人惊讶的是，我们对选民联盟偏好的了解却很少。本文利用奥地利全国选举研究的数据，研究了作为政治对象的联盟偏好的决定因素及其独立性。我们发现，联盟偏好很大程度上受到空间因素的影响；但其他非意识形态因素，如政党和领导人偏好，也发挥着重要作用。我们还发现，联盟在一定程度上独立于其他投票选择对象，它们并不总是代表组成政党在感觉温度计上的简单平均分。然而，选民之间存在很大差异，政党认同者和极端意识形态者不太可能将联盟视为与其组成政党不同的独立实体。
