Mitrović D
Faculty of Mathematics, University of Vienna, Oskar Morgenstern Platz-1, 1090, Vienna, Austria.
Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, University of Montenegro, Cetinjski put bb, 81000, Podgorica, Montenegro.
Sci Rep. 2024 Feb 8;14(1):3227. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-53674-0.
A political party can be considered as a company whose value depends on the voters support i.e. on the percentage of population supporting the party. Dynamics of the support is thus as a stochastic process with a deterministic growth rate perturbed by a white noise modeled through the Wiener process. This is in an analogy with the option modeling where the stock price behaves similarly as the voters' support. While in the option theory we have the question of fair price of an option, the question that we ask here is what is a reasonable level of support that the coalition of a "major" party (safely above the election threshold) and a "minor" party (under or around the election threshold) should achieve in order for the "minor" party to get one more representative. We shall elaborate some of the conclusions in the case of recent elections in Montenegro (June, 2023) which are particularly interesting due to lots of political subjects entering the race.
一个政党可以被视为一家公司，其价值取决于选民的支持，即取决于支持该党的人口百分比。因此，支持率的动态变化是一个随机过程，具有一个确定性的增长率，并受到通过维纳过程建模的白噪声的干扰。这类似于期权建模，其中股票价格的表现与选民支持率相似。在期权理论中，我们有期权公平价格的问题，而我们这里要问的问题是，一个“大”党（安全地高于选举门槛）和一个“小”党（低于或接近选举门槛）的联盟为了让“小”党多获得一名代表，应该达到什么样的合理支持水平。我们将阐述在黑山最近一次选举（2023年6月）中的一些结论，由于众多政治主体参与竞选，这些结论特别有趣。
