Factors at presentation predictive of a requirement for endoscopic therapy in patients presenting with overt upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage: a retrospective observational study.

INTRODUCTION

In patients with upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage (UGIH), endoscopic treatment of high-risk lesions reduces mortality. Performing out of office hours endoscopy places a strain on endoscopy services. This analysis aims to identify factors at presentation associated with lesions requiring endoscopic therapy, allowing triage of those likely to receive benefit from acute out of hours endoscopy.

METHODS

Patients presenting between 17 March 2001 and 12 October 2010 with UGIH had clinical and laboratory features on presentation, endoscopic findings and administered treatment recorded. Patients with known cirrhotic liver disease were excluded. Logistic regression was performed, identifying factors at presentation associated with a requirement of endoscopic therapy (RET), which were then used to create a scoring system predictive of RET.

RESULTS

In all, 1492 patients were analysed. The presence on presentation of fresh melaena (OR = 3.18, p<0.001), fresh haematemesis (OR=2.13, p<0.001), haemoglobin<130 g/L (OR=2.65, p<0.001), urea >10 mmol/L (OR=2.10, p<0.001), systolic blood pressure <100 mm  Hg (OR=1.85, p<0.001), inpatient status (OR=1.43, p=0.04), a history of peptic ulcer disease (OR=1.96, p=0.02), male sex (OR=1.45, p=0.01), presentation within 8 h of symptom onset (OR=1.48, p=0.02), coffee ground vomitus (OR=0.47, p=0.004) and warfarin use (OR=0.57, p=0.005) were associated with RET. Using a simple scoring system (fresh haematemesis=2, fresh melaena=2, haemoglobin <130=2, urea >10=1, BP <100=1, male sex=1, history of peptic ulcer disease=1), a score ≥7 was associated with RET in 45% of cases and a score ≤4 in 7%.

CONCLUSIONS

Application of this scoring system when assessing patients presenting with UGIH out of office hours may help predict the likelihood of RET, and aid in the triage of endoscopy. Prospective validation of this score in an external cohort is required.