Liang Pujun, Xu Wei, Ma Yunjia, Zhao Xiujuan, Qin Lianjie
State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs and Ministry of Education, Beijing 100875, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2017 Aug 26;14(9):963. doi: 10.3390/ijerph14090963.
In light of global warming, increased extreme precipitation events have enlarged the population exposed to floods to some extent. Extreme precipitation risk assessments are of great significance in China and allow for the response to climate change and mitigation of risks to the population. China is one of the countries most influenced by climate change and has unique national population conditions. The influence of extreme precipitation depends on the degree of exposure and vulnerability of the population. Accurate assessments of the population exposed to rising rainstorm trends are crucial to mapping extreme precipitation risks. Studying the population exposed to rainstorm hazard areas (RSHA) at the microscale is extremely urgent, due to the local characteristics of extreme precipitation events and regional diversity of the population. The spatial distribution of population density was mapped based on the national population census data from China in 1990, 2000 and 2010. RSHA were also identified using precipitation data from 1975-2015 in China, and the rainstorm tendency values were mapped using GIS in this paper. The spatial characteristics of the rainstorm tendencies were then analyzed. Finally, changes in the population in the RSHA are discussed. The results show that the extreme precipitation trends are increasing in southeastern China. From 1990 to 2010, the population in RSHA increased by 110 million, at a rate of 14.6%. The elderly in the region increased by 38 million at a rate of 86.4%. Studying the size of the population exposed to rainstorm hazards at the county scale can provide scientific evidence for developing disaster prevention and mitigation strategies from the bottom up.
鉴于全球变暖,极端降水事件增多在一定程度上扩大了受洪水影响的人口规模。极端降水风险评估在中国具有重要意义,有助于应对气候变化和降低人口面临的风险。中国是受气候变化影响最大的国家之一,且具有独特的人口国情。极端降水的影响取决于人口的暴露程度和脆弱性。准确评估受暴雨趋势上升影响的人口对于绘制极端降水风险地图至关重要。由于极端降水事件的局部特征和人口的区域多样性,在微观尺度上研究暴露于暴雨危险区域(RSHA)的人口极为迫切。基于中国1990年、2000年和2010年的全国人口普查数据绘制了人口密度的空间分布图。本文还利用中国1975 - 2015年的降水数据确定了RSHA,并使用GIS绘制了暴雨趋势值图。然后分析了暴雨趋势的空间特征。最后讨论了RSHA内人口的变化情况。结果表明,中国东南部的极端降水趋势正在增加。从1990年到2010年,RSHA内的人口增加了1.1亿,增长率为14.6%。该地区的老年人口增加了3800万,增长率为86.4%。在县级尺度上研究暴露于暴雨灾害的人口规模可为自下而上制定防灾减灾策略提供科学依据。