1 Department of Statistics and Operations Research, Public University of Navarre, Spain.
2 Institute for Advanced Materials (InaMat), Public University of Navarre, Spain.
Stat Methods Med Res. 2019 Feb;28(2):384-403. doi: 10.1177/0962280217726802. Epub 2017 Aug 28.
In this paper age-space-time models based on one and two-dimensional P-splines with B-spline bases are proposed for smoothing mortality rates, where both fixed relative scale and scale invariant two-dimensional penalties are examined. Model fitting and inference are carried out using integrated nested Laplace approximations, a recent Bayesian technique that speeds up computations compared to McMC methods. The models will be illustrated with Spanish breast cancer mortality data during the period 1985-2010, where a general decline in breast cancer mortality has been observed in Spanish provinces in the last decades. The results reveal that mortality rates for the oldest age groups do not decrease in all provinces.
本文提出了基于一维和二维 P 样条的时空模型，其中采用 B 样条基，以平滑死亡率，同时检验了固定相对尺度和尺度不变二维惩罚。模型拟合和推断采用集成嵌套拉普拉斯逼近法，这是一种比 McMC 方法更快的新贝叶斯技术。该模型将用 1985 年至 2010 年期间西班牙乳腺癌死亡率数据来说明，在过去几十年中，西班牙各省乳腺癌死亡率普遍下降。结果表明，并非所有省份的最老年组死亡率都在下降。
