Levine Ned
Ned Levine & Associates, Houston, TX, USA.
Accid Anal Prev. 2017 Oct;107:152-163. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2017.05.010. Epub 2017 Aug 30.
A study in the City of Houston, Texas, related the location of establishments primarily serving alcohol ("bars") after midnight to late night alcohol-related motor vehicle crashes. There were three data sets for 2007-09: 1) 764bars that were open after midnight; 2) 1660 alcohol-related crashes that occurred within the City of Houston between midnight and 6 am; and 3) 4689 modeling network road segments to which bars and alcohol-related crashes were assigned. Forty-five percent of the late night alcohol-related crashes were within a quarter mile of a late night bar. The bars were highly concentrated in 17 small bar clusters. Using the modeling network, Poisson-Gamma-CAR and Poisson-Lognormal-CAR spatial regression models showed a positive exponential relationship between late night alcohol-related crashes and the number of late nights bars and bar clusters, and a negative exponential relationship to distance to the nearest late night bar controlling for the type of road segment (freeway, principal arterial, minor arterial). A more general model dropped the bar cluster variable. Further, the Poisson-Gamma-CAR model appeared to produce a better representation than the Poisson-Lognormal-CAR model though the errors were different. The general Poisson-Gamma-CAR model showed that each late night bar increased the frequency of alcohol-related crashes on a segment by approximately 190%. For each mile closer a segment was to a late night bar, the likelihood increased by 42%.
德克萨斯州休斯顿市的一项研究,将主要提供酒类饮品的场所(“酒吧”)午夜后的位置与深夜酒精相关机动车碰撞事故联系起来。2007年至2009年有三组数据集:1)午夜后营业的764家酒吧;2)休斯顿市午夜至凌晨6点之间发生的1660起酒精相关碰撞事故;3)分配了酒吧和酒精相关碰撞事故的4689条建模网络路段。45%的深夜酒精相关碰撞事故发生在深夜酒吧四分之一英里范围内。这些酒吧高度集中在17个小酒吧集群中。使用建模网络,泊松-伽马-条件自回归(Poisson-Gamma-CAR)和泊松-对数正态-条件自回归(Poisson-Lognormal-CAR)空间回归模型显示,深夜酒精相关碰撞事故与深夜酒吧及酒吧集群数量之间呈正指数关系,与到最近深夜酒吧的距离呈负指数关系,同时控制路段类型(高速公路、主要干道、次要干道)。一个更通用的模型去掉了酒吧集群变量。此外,尽管误差不同,但泊松-伽马-条件自回归模型似乎比泊松-对数正态-条件自回归模型能提供更好的拟合。通用的泊松-伽马-条件自回归模型表明,每个深夜酒吧使路段上酒精相关碰撞事故的频率增加约190%。路段距离深夜酒吧每近一英里,发生事故的可能性增加42%。