Discipline of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Nursing and Public Health, College of Health Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa.
School of Agricultural, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Kwa-Zulu Natal, Durban, South Africa.
Sci Total Environ. 2018 Jan 1;610-611:1439-1447. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.07.278. Epub 2017 Sep 14.
The South Durban (SD) area of Durban, South Africa, has a history of air pollution issues due to the juxtaposition of low-income communities with industrial areas. This study used measurements of oxides of nitrogen (NO) to develop a land use regression (LUR) model to explain the spatial variation of air pollution concentrations in this area.
Ambient NO was measured over two two-week sampling periods at 32 sites using Ogawa badges. Following the ESCAPE approach, an annual adjusted average was calculated for these results and regressed against pre-selected geographic predictor variables in a multivariate regression model. The LUR model was then applied to predict the NO exposure of a sample of pregnant women living in South Durban.
Measured NO levels ranged from 22.3-50.9μg/m with a median of 36μg/m. The model developed accounts for 73% of the variance in ambient NO measurements using three input variables (length of minor roads within a 1000m radius, length of major roads within a 300m radius, and area of open space within a 1000m radius). Model cross validation yielded a R of 0.59. Subsequent participant exposure estimates indicated exposure to ambient NO ranged from 19.9-53.2μg/m, with a mean of 39μg/m.
This is the first study to develop a land use regression model that predicts ambient concentrations of NO in a South African context. The findings of this study indicate that the participants in the South Durban are exposed to high levels of NO that can be attributed mainly to traffic.
南非德班的南德班（SD）地区由于低收入社区与工业区毗邻，存在空气污染问题。本研究使用氮氧化物（NO）测量值来开发一个基于土地利用的回归（LUR）模型，以解释该地区空气污染浓度的空间变化。
在 32 个地点使用 Ogawa 徽章对环境 NO 进行了两次为期两周的采样测量。按照 ESCAPE 方法，对这些结果进行了年度调整平均，并在多元回归模型中对预选的地理预测变量进行回归。然后将 LUR 模型应用于预测居住在南德班的孕妇的 NO 暴露情况。
测量的 NO 水平范围为 22.3-50.9μg/m，中位数为 36μg/m。所开发的模型使用三个输入变量（1000 米半径内的次要道路长度、300 米半径内的主要道路长度和 1000 米半径内的开放空间面积）解释了环境 NO 测量值 73%的方差。模型交叉验证的 R 值为 0.59。随后的参与者暴露估计表明，环境 NO 暴露范围为 19.9-53.2μg/m，平均值为 39μg/m。
这是第一项在南非背景下开发预测环境 NO 浓度的基于土地利用的回归模型的研究。本研究的结果表明，南德班的参与者暴露于高水平的 NO 中，这主要归因于交通。
