University of Westminster, London.
University of Sussex, Falmer, UK.
Hum Factors. 2017 Dec;59(8):1188-1203. doi: 10.1177/0018720817727899. Epub 2017 Sep 6.
Objective To study decision making by detectives when investigating serious crime through the examination of decision logs to explore hypothesis generation and evidence selection. Background Decision logs are used to record and justify decisions made during serious crime investigations. The complexity of investigative decision making is well documented, as are the errors associated with miscarriages of justice and inquests. The use of decision logs has not been the subject of an empirical investigation, yet they offer an important window into the nature of investigative decision making in dynamic, time-critical environments. Method A sample of decision logs from British police forces was analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively to explore hypothesis generation and evidence selection by police detectives. Results Analyses revealed diversity in documentation of decisions that did not correlate with case type and identified significant limitations of the decision log approach to supporting investigative decision making. Differences emerged between experienced and less experienced officers' decision log records in exploration of alternative hypotheses, generation of hypotheses, and sources of evidential inquiry opened over phase of investigation. Conclusion The practical use of decision logs is highly constrained by their format and context of use. Despite this, decision log records suggest that experienced detectives display strategic decision making to avoid confirmation and satisficing, which affect less experienced detectives. Application Potential applications of this research include both training in case documentation and the development of new decision log media that encourage detectives, irrespective of experience, to generate multiple hypotheses and optimize the timely selection of evidence to test them.
目的 通过考察决策日志来研究侦探在调查严重犯罪时的决策制定情况，以探究假设生成和证据选择。
背景 决策日志用于记录和证明严重犯罪调查过程中的决策。调查决策的复杂性以及与司法不公和死因调查相关的错误已有充分记录。尽管决策日志在动态、时间关键的环境中为调查决策的本质提供了重要的窗口，但它们并没有成为实证研究的对象。
方法 对英国警察部队的决策日志样本进行了定性和定量分析，以探讨警察侦探的假设生成和证据选择。
结果 分析显示，决策记录的多样性与案件类型无关，并且决策日志方法在支持调查决策方面存在明显的局限性。在探索替代假设、生成假设以及在调查阶段开启证据调查来源方面，经验丰富和经验不足的警官的决策日志记录存在差异。
结论 决策日志的实际应用受到其格式和使用背景的高度限制。尽管如此，决策日志记录表明，经验丰富的侦探表现出避免确认偏差和满足性的策略性决策，这会影响经验不足的侦探。
应用 这项研究的潜在应用包括案例文件记录的培训以及新的决策日志媒体的开发，这些媒体可以鼓励侦探（无论经验如何）生成多个假设并优化证据的及时选择以检验这些假设。
