Chen Shao-Ming, Qiu Li, Du Zhong-Hua, Jin Yu-Ming, Du Jian-Wei, Chen Yan, Watanabe Chiho, Umezaki Masahiro
Hainan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention.
Department of Human Ecology, School of International Health, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo.
Jpn J Infect Dis. 2017 Nov 22;70(6):604-608. doi: 10.7883/yoken.JJID.2016.407. Epub 2017 Sep 11.
The incidence of severe hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) in Southeast and East Asia has increased in recent years. This study explored spatial clusters of the incidence and proportion of severe HFMD cases on Hainan Island, where the prevalence and mortality of HFMD were the highest in China during 2011. A spatial autocorrelation statistic (Anselin's Local Moran I) was calculated for the Empirical Bayesian (EB)-smoothed dataset of severe HFMD cases. Significant spatial clusters were detected for both the incidence and proportion of severe HFMD cases. Population density was higher in spatial clusters with a high proportion of severe HFMD cases among total HFMD cases. We speculate that a higher proportion of severe HFMD cases were diagnosed in densely populated townships. This should be considered when analyzing the HFMD database of Hainan Island.
近年来，东南亚和东亚地区重症手足口病（HFMD）的发病率有所上升。本研究探讨了海南岛重症手足口病病例发病率和比例的空间聚集情况，2011年期间，海南岛手足口病的患病率和死亡率在中国最高。针对重症手足口病病例的经验贝叶斯（EB）平滑数据集计算了空间自相关统计量（安塞尔林局部莫兰指数）。重症手足口病病例的发病率和比例均检测到显著的空间聚集。在手足口病总病例中重症手足口病病例比例较高的空间聚集中，人口密度更高。我们推测，在人口密集的乡镇中，重症手足口病病例的诊断比例更高。在分析海南岛手足口病数据库时应考虑这一点。
