Hudson Emily G, Brookes Victoria J, Ward Michael P
Sydney School of Veterinary Science, The University of Sydney, Camden, NSW Australia.
Front Vet Sci. 2017 Aug 31;4:141. doi: 10.3389/fvets.2017.00141. eCollection 2017.
Rabies is a globally distributed virus that causes approximately 60,00 human deaths annually with >99% of cases caused by dog bites. Australia is currently canine rabies free. However, the recent eastward spread of rabies in the Indonesian archipelago has increased the probability of rabies entry into northern Australian communities. In addition, many northern Australian communities have large populations of free-roaming dogs, capable of maintaining rabies should an incursion occur. A risk assessment of rabies entry and transmission into these communities is needed to target control and surveillance measures. Illegal transportation of rabies-infected dogs boat landings is a high-risk entry pathway and was the focus of the current study. A quantitative, stochastic, risk assessment model was developed to evaluate the risk of rabies entry into north-west Cape York Peninsula, Australia, and rabies introduction to resident dogs in one of the communities transport of rabies-infected dogs on illegal Indonesian fishing boats. Parameter distributions were derived from expert opinion, literature, and analysis of field studies. The estimated median probability of rabies entry into north-west Cape York Peninsula and into Seisia from individual fishing boats was 1.9 × 10/boat and 8.7 × 10/boat, respectively. The estimated annual probability that at least one rabies-infected dog enters north-west Cape York Peninsula and into Seisia was 5.5 × 10 and 3.5 × 10, respectively. The estimated median probability of rabies introduction into Seisia was 4.7 × 10/boat, and the estimated annual probability that at least one rabies-infected dog causes rabies transmission in a resident Seisia dog was 8.3 × 10. Sensitivity analysis using the Sobol method highlighted some parameters as influential, including but not limited to the prevalence of rabies in Indonesia, the probability of a dog on board an Indonesian fishing boat, and the probability of a Seisia dog being on the beach. Overall, the probabilities of rabies entry into north-west Cape York Peninsula and rabies introduction into Seisia are low. However, the potential devastating consequences of a rabies incursion in this region make this a non-negligible risk.
狂犬病是一种全球分布的病毒，每年导致约6万人死亡，其中超过99%的病例是由狗咬伤引起的。澳大利亚目前没有犬类狂犬病。然而，狂犬病最近在印度尼西亚群岛向东扩散，增加了狂犬病进入澳大利亚北部社区的可能性。此外，澳大利亚北部的许多社区有大量自由放养的狗，如果狂犬病入侵，这些狗能够传播狂犬病。需要对狂犬病进入和传播到这些社区的风险进行评估，以便针对性地采取控制和监测措施。狂犬病感染犬只通过船只登陆的非法运输是一个高风险的进入途径，也是本研究的重点。开发了一个定量、随机的风险评估模型，以评估狂犬病进入澳大利亚约克角半岛西北部的风险，以及通过非法印度尼西亚渔船运输狂犬病感染犬只导致狂犬病传入其中一个社区的居民犬只的风险。参数分布来自专家意见、文献和实地研究分析。估计每艘渔船将狂犬病传入约克角半岛西北部和塞西亚的中位数概率分别为1.9×10⁻⁵/船和8.7×10⁻⁶/船。估计每年至少有一只狂犬病感染犬进入约克角半岛西北部和塞西亚的概率分别为5.5×10⁻³和3.5×10⁻³。估计将狂犬病传入塞西亚的中位数概率为4.7×10⁻⁵/船，估计每年至少有一只狂犬病感染犬在塞西亚居民犬中导致狂犬病传播的概率为8.3×10⁻⁴。使用索博尔方法的敏感性分析突出了一些有影响的参数，包括但不限于印度尼西亚的狂犬病流行率、印度尼西亚渔船上有狗的概率以及塞西亚的狗出现在海滩上的概率。总体而言，狂犬病进入约克角半岛西北部和传入塞西亚的概率较低。然而，该地区狂犬病入侵可能造成的毁灭性后果使这一风险不可忽视。
