Lancet. 2017 Oct 28;390(10106):1972-1980. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32162-1. Epub 2017 Sep 19.
BACKGROUND: Documentation of the demographic and geographical details of changes in cause-specific neonatal (younger than 1 month) and 1-59-month mortality in India can guide further progress in reduction of child mortality. In this study we report the changes in cause-specific child mortality between 2000 and 2015 in India. METHODS: Since 2001, the Registrar General of India has implemented the Million Death Study (MDS) in 1·3 million homes in more than 7000 randomly selected areas of India. About 900 non-medical surveyors do structured verbal autopsies for deaths recorded in these homes. Each field report is assigned randomly to two of 404 trained physicians to classify the cause of death, with a standard process for resolution of disagreements. We combined the proportions of child deaths according to the MDS for 2001-13 with annual UN estimates of national births and deaths (partitioned across India's states and rural or urban areas) for 2000-15. We calculated the annual percentage change in sex-specific and cause-specific mortality between 2000 and 2015 for neonates and 1-59-month-old children. FINDINGS: The MDS captured 52 252 deaths in neonates and 42 057 deaths at 1-59 months. Examining specific causes, the neonatal mortality rate from infection fell by 66% from 11·9 per 1000 livebirths in 2000 to 4·0 per 1000 livebirths in 2015 and the rate from birth asphyxia or trauma fell by 76% from 9·0 per 1000 livebirths in 2000 to 2·2 per 1000 livebirths in 2015. At 1-59 months, the mortality rate from pneumonia fell by 63% from 11·2 per 1000 livebirths in 2000 to 4·2 per 1000 livebirths in 2015 and the rate from diarrhoea fell by 66% from 9·4 per 1000 livebirths in 2000 to 3·2 per 1000 livebirths in 2015 (with narrowing girl-boy gaps). The neonatal tetanus mortality rate fell from 1·6 per 1000 livebirths in 2000 to less than 0·1 per 1000 livebirths in 2015 and the 1-59-month measles mortality rate fell from 3·3 per 1000 livebirths in 2000 to 0·3 per 1000 livebirths in 2015. By contrast, mortality rates for prematurity or low birthweight rose from 12·3 per 1000 livebirths in 2000 to 14·3 per 1000 livebirths in 2015, driven mostly by increases in term births with low birthweight in poorer states and rural areas. 29 million cumulative child deaths occurred from 2000 to 2015. The average annual decline in mortality rates from 2000 to 2015 was 3·3% for neonates and 5·4% for children aged 1-59 months. Annual declines from 2005 to 2015 (3·4% decline for neonatal mortality and 5·9% decline in 1-59-month mortality) were faster than were annual declines from 2000 to 2005 (3·2% decline for neonatal mortality and 4·5% decline in 1-59-month mortality). These faster declines indicate that India avoided about 1 million child deaths compared with continuation of the 2000-05 declines. INTERPRETATION: To meet the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals for child mortality, India will need to maintain the current trajectory of 1-59-month mortality and accelerate declines in neonatal mortality (to >5% annually) from 2015 onwards. Continued progress in reduction of child mortality due to pneumonia, diarrhoea, malaria, and measles at 1-59 months is feasible. Additional attention to low birthweight is required. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health, Disease Control Priorities Network, Maternal and Child Epidemiology Estimation Group, and University of Toronto.
背景:记录印度新生儿(1 个月以下)和 1-59 个月儿童特定病因死亡率的人口统计学和地理细节的变化情况,可以指导进一步降低儿童死亡率的工作。本研究报告了 2000 年至 2015 年期间印度特定病因儿童死亡率的变化情况。 方法:自 2001 年以来,印度人口登记总署在印度 7000 多个随机选择的地区的 130 万个家庭中实施了百万死亡研究(MDS)。大约 900 名非医学调查人员为这些家庭记录的死亡事件进行了结构化的口头尸检。每个现场报告随机分配给 404 名经过培训的医生中的两名,以对死亡原因进行分类,对于分歧有一个标准的解决流程。我们将 MDS 记录的 2001-13 年期间的儿童死亡率比例与 2000-15 年期间联合国对印度全国出生和死亡(按印度各州以及农村或城市地区划分)的年度估计数结合起来。我们计算了 2000 年至 2015 年期间新生儿和 1-59 个月儿童性别特异性和病因特异性死亡率的年度百分比变化。 结果:MDS 记录了 52052 例新生儿死亡和 42057 例 1-59 个月儿童死亡。在具体病因方面,感染导致的新生儿死亡率从 2000 年的每 1000 例活产 11.9 例下降到 2015 年的每 1000 例活产 4.0 例,出生窒息或创伤导致的死亡率从 2000 年的每 1000 例活产 9.0 例下降到 2015 年的每 1000 例活产 2.2 例。1-59 个月儿童中,肺炎导致的死亡率从 2000 年的每 1000 例活产 11.2 例下降到 2015 年的每 1000 例活产 4.2 例,腹泻导致的死亡率从 2000 年的每 1000 例活产 9.4 例下降到 2015 年的每 1000 例活产 3.2 例(性别差距缩小)。新生儿破伤风死亡率从 2000 年的每 1000 例活产 1.6 例下降到 2015 年的每 1000 例活产不足 0.1 例,1-59 个月儿童麻疹死亡率从 2000 年的每 1000 例活产 3.3 例下降到 2015 年的每 1000 例活产 0.3 例。相比之下,早产儿或低出生体重儿的死亡率从 2000 年的每 1000 例活产 12.3 例上升到 2015 年的每 1000 例活产 14.3 例,这主要是由于较贫穷州和农村地区足月出生但体重较低的情况增加所致。2000 年至 2015 年期间累计发生 2900 万例儿童死亡。2000 年至 2015 年期间,新生儿死亡率的年平均下降率为 3.3%,1-59 个月儿童死亡率的年平均下降率为 5.4%。2005 年至 2015 年期间(新生儿死亡率下降 3.4%,1-59 个月儿童死亡率下降 5.9%)的年下降率快于 2000 年至 2005 年期间(新生儿死亡率下降 3.2%,1-59 个月儿童死亡率下降 4.5%)。这些更快的下降表明,与 2000-05 年期间的下降趋势相比,印度避免了约 100 万例儿童死亡。 解释:为了实现 2030 年可持续发展目标中的儿童死亡率目标,印度将需要维持目前 1-59 个月儿童死亡率的轨迹,并从 2015 年起加快新生儿死亡率(每年超过 5%)的下降速度。在 1-59 个月期间,肺炎、腹泻、疟疾和麻疹导致的儿童死亡率进一步下降是可行的。需要更加关注低出生体重问题。 资金来源:美国国立卫生研究院、疾病控制优先事项网络、母婴和儿童流行病学估计小组以及多伦多大学。
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