Lancet. 2020 May 23;395(10237):1640-1658. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30471-2. Epub 2020 May 12.
BACKGROUND: India has made substantial progress in improving child survival over the past few decades, but a comprehensive understanding of child mortality trends at disaggregated geographical levels is not available. We present a detailed analysis of subnational trends of child mortality to inform efforts aimed at meeting the India National Health Policy (NHP) and Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) targets for child mortality. METHODS: We assessed the under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) and neonatal mortality rate (NMR) from 2000 to 2017 in 5 × 5 km grids across India, and for the districts and states of India, using all accessible data from various sources including surveys with subnational geographical information. The 31 states and groups of union territories were categorised into three groups using their Socio-demographic Index (SDI) level, calculated as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study on the basis of per-capita income, mean education, and total fertility rate in women younger than 25 years. Inequality between districts within the states was assessed using the coefficient of variation. We projected U5MR and NMR for the states and districts up to 2025 and 2030 on the basis of the trends from 2000 to 2017 and compared these projections with the NHP 2025 and SDG 2030 targets for U5MR (23 deaths and 25 deaths per 1000 livebirths, respectively) and NMR (16 deaths and 12 deaths per 1000 livebirths, respectively). We assessed the causes of child death and the contribution of risk factors to child deaths at the state level. FINDINGS: U5MR in India decreased from 83·1 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 76·7-90·1) in 2000 to 42·4 (36·5-50·0) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, and NMR from 38·0 (34·2-41·6) to 23·5 (20·1-27·8) per 1000 livebirths. U5MR varied 5·7 times between the states of India and 10·5 times between the 723 districts of India in 2017, whereas NMR varied 4·5 times and 8·0 times, respectively. In the low SDI states, 275 (88%) districts had a U5MR of 40 or more per 1000 livebirths and 291 (93%) districts had an NMR of 20 or more per 1000 livebirths in 2017. The annual rate of change from 2010 to 2017 varied among the districts from a 9·02% (95% UI 6·30-11·63) reduction to no significant change for U5MR and from an 8·05% (95% UI 5·34-10·74) reduction to no significant change for NMR. Inequality between districts within the states increased from 2000 to 2017 in 23 of the 31 states for U5MR and in 24 states for NMR, with the largest increases in Odisha and Assam among the low SDI states. If the trends observed up to 2017 were to continue, India would meet the SDG 2030 U5MR target but not the SDG 2030 NMR target or either of the NHP 2025 targets. To reach the SDG 2030 targets individually, 246 (34%) districts for U5MR and 430 (59%) districts for NMR would need a higher rate of improvement than they had up to 2017. For all major causes of under-5 death in India, the death rate decreased between 2000 and 2017, with the highest decline for infectious diseases, intermediate decline for neonatal disorders, and the smallest decline for congenital birth defects, although the magnitude of decline varied widely between the states. Child and maternal malnutrition was the predominant risk factor, to which 68·2% (65·8-70·7) of under-5 deaths and 83·0% (80·6-85·0) of neonatal deaths in India could be attributed in 2017; 10·8% (9·1-12·4) of under-5 deaths could be attributed to unsafe water and sanitation and 8·8% (7·0-10·3) to air pollution. INTERPRETATION: India has made gains in child survival, but there are substantial variations between the states in the magnitude and rate of decline in mortality, and even higher variations between the districts of India. Inequality between districts within states has increased for the majority of the states. The district-level trends presented here can provide crucial guidance for targeted efforts needed in India to reduce child mortality to meet the Indian and global child survival targets. District-level mortality trends along with state-level trends in causes of under-5 and neonatal death and the risk factors in this Article provide a comprehensive reference for further planning of child mortality reduction in India. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; and Indian Council of Medical Research, Department of Health Research, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India.
背景:在过去几十年中,印度在提高儿童生存率方面取得了重大进展,但在亚区地理水平上的儿童死亡率趋势仍缺乏全面了解。我们详细分析了儿童死亡率的次国家趋势,为实现印度国家卫生政策(NHP)和可持续发展目标(SDG)的儿童死亡率目标提供信息。
方法:我们评估了 2000 年至 2017 年印度 5km×5km 网格以及印度各地区和各州的五岁以下儿童死亡率(U5MR)和新生儿死亡率(NMR),使用了包括带有次国家地理信息的调查在内的各种来源的所有可获得数据。根据全球疾病、伤害和危险因素研究中的人口人均收入、平均教育水平和 25 岁以下女性总生育率计算的社会人口指数(SDI)水平,将 31 个邦和邦联属地分为三组。我们使用变异系数评估了各州内各地区之间的不平等。我们根据 2000 年至 2017 年的趋势,预测了各州和各地区 2025 年和 2030 年的 U5MR 和 NMR,并将这些预测与 NHP 2025 年和 SDG 2030 年的 U5MR(分别为每 1000 例活产 23 例和 25 例死亡)和 NMR(分别为每 1000 例活产 16 例和 12 例死亡)目标进行了比较。我们评估了儿童死亡的原因以及风险因素对儿童死亡的贡献,评估工作按州一级进行。
发现:印度的 U5MR 从 2000 年的 83.1(95%置信区间 [UI] 76.7-90.1)降至 2017 年的 42.4(36.5-50.0)/1000 例活产,NMR 从 38.0(34.2-41.6)降至 23.5(20.1-27.8)/1000 例活产。2017 年,印度各州之间 U5MR 差异高达 5.7 倍,印度 723 个地区之间差异高达 10.5 倍,而 NMR 差异分别为 4.5 倍和 8.0 倍。在低 SDI 州,2017 年有 275 个(88%)地区的 U5MR 为 40 或更高/1000 例活产,291 个(93%)地区的 NMR 为 20 或更高/1000 例活产。从 2010 年到 2017 年,各地区 U5MR 的年变化率从减少 9.02%(95% UI 6.30-11.63)到没有明显变化不等,NMR 的年变化率从减少 8.05%(95% UI 5.34-10.74)到没有明显变化不等。从 2000 年到 2017 年,31 个州中的 23 个州以及 24 个州的 NMR 州内各地区之间的不平等程度有所增加,其中奥里萨邦和阿萨姆邦在低 SDI 州中增长幅度最大。如果按照截至 2017 年的趋势继续下去,印度将实现 SDG 2030 年的 U5MR 目标,但无法实现 SDG 2030 年的 NMR 目标或 NHP 2025 年的任何一个目标。要实现 SDG 2030 年的个别目标,U5MR 有 246 个(34%)地区和 NMR 有 430 个(59%)地区需要比截至 2017 年的改善速度更快。在印度,所有主要的 5 岁以下儿童死亡原因中,死亡率在 2000 年至 2017 年间都有所下降,其中传染病的下降幅度最大,新生儿疾病的下降幅度居中,先天性出生缺陷的下降幅度最小,尽管各州之间的下降幅度差异很大。儿童和孕产妇营养不良是主要的风险因素,2017 年印度有 68.2%(65.8-70.7)的 5 岁以下儿童死亡和 83.0%(80.6-85.0)的新生儿死亡可归因于这一因素;10.8%(9.1-12.4)的 5 岁以下儿童死亡可归因于不安全的水和环境卫生,8.8%(7.0-10.3)的死亡可归因于空气污染。
解释:印度在儿童生存方面取得了进展,但各州在死亡率下降的幅度和速度方面存在着巨大差异,印度各地区之间的差异甚至更大。大多数州的州内各地区之间的不平等程度有所增加。本文提出的地区死亡率趋势可以为印度在实现儿童死亡率降低、实现印度和全球儿童生存目标方面提供有针对性的指导。本文提供了按州一级划分的 5 岁以下儿童和新生儿死亡的原因和风险因素,以及死亡率趋势,为印度进一步规划儿童死亡率降低提供了全面的参考。
资金:比尔及梅琳达·盖茨基金会;以及印度医学研究理事会,印度卫生与家庭福利部,印度政府。
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