Davidson Carla, Spink David
a Endeavour Scientific , Calgary , Alberta , Canada.
b Pravid St. Albert , St. Albert , Alberta , Canada.
J Air Waste Manag Assoc. 2018 Apr;68(4):308-328. doi: 10.1080/10962247.2017.1377648.
Previous analyses of continuously measured compounds in Fort McKay, an indigenous community in the Athabasca Oil Sands, have detected increasing concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO) and total hydrocarbons (THC), but not of sulfur dioxide (SO), ozone (O), total reduced sulfur compounds (TRS), or particulate matter (aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm; PM). Yet the community frequently experiences odors, dust, and reduced air quality. The authors used Fort McKay's continuously monitored air quality data (1998-2014) as a case study to assess techniques for air quality analysis that make no assumptions regarding type of change. Linear trend analysis detected increasing concentrations of higher percentiles of NO, nitric oxide (NO), and nitrogen oxides (NO), and THC. However, comparisons of all compounds between an early industrial expansion period (1998-2001) and current day (2011-2014) show that concentrations of NO, SO, THC, TRS, and PM have significantly increased, whereas concentrations of O are significantly lower. An assessment of the frequency and duration of periods when concentrations of each compound were above a variety of thresholds indicated that the frequency of air quality events is increasing for NO and THC. Assessment of change over time with odds ratios of the 25th, 50th, 75th, and 90th percentile concentrations for each compound compared with an estimate of natural background variability showed that concentrations of TRS, SO, and THC are dynamic, higher than background, and changes are nonlinear and nonmonotonic. An assessment of concentrations as a function of wind direction showed a clear and generally increasing influence of industry on air quality. This work shows that evaluating air quality without assumptions of linearity reveals dynamic changes in air quality in Fort McKay, and that it is increasingly being affected by oil sands operations.
Understanding the nature and types of air quality changes occurring in a community or region is essential for the development of appropriate air quality management policies. Time-series trending of air quality data is a common tool for assessing air quality changes and is often used to assess the effectiveness of current emission management programs. The use of this tool, in the context of oil sands development, has significant limitations, and alternate air quality change analysis approaches need to be applied to ensure that the impact of this development on air quality is fully understood so that appropriate emission management actions can be taken.
此前对阿萨巴斯卡油砂地区的原住民社区麦凯堡连续监测的化合物进行分析时，已检测到二氧化氮（NO）和总碳氢化合物（THC）浓度上升，但未检测到二氧化硫（SO）、臭氧（O）、总还原硫化合物（TRS）或颗粒物（空气动力学直径<2.5μm；PM）浓度上升。然而，该社区经常经历异味、扬尘，空气质量下降。作者以麦凯堡1998 - 2014年连续监测的空气质量数据为案例研究，评估不做变化类型假设的空气质量分析技术。线性趋势分析检测到NO、一氧化氮（NO）、氮氧化物（NO）以及THC的较高百分位数浓度呈上升趋势。然而，对早期工业扩张期（1998 - 2001年）和当前（2011 - 2014年）所有化合物的比较表明，NO、SO、THC、TRS和PM的浓度显著上升，而O的浓度显著降低。对各化合物浓度超过各种阈值的时段频率和持续时间的评估表明，NO和THC的空气质量事件频率正在增加。将各化合物第25、50、75和90百分位数浓度的比值与自然背景变异性估计值进行比较，评估随时间的变化，结果表明TRS、SO和THC的浓度动态变化，高于背景值，且变化是非线性和非单调的。对浓度随风向变化的评估表明，工业对空气质量的影响清晰且总体呈上升趋势。这项工作表明，在不做线性假设的情况下评估空气质量，揭示了麦凯堡空气质量的动态变化，且该地区正日益受到油砂作业的影响。
了解社区或地区空气质量变化的性质和类型对于制定适当的空气质量管理政策至关重要。空气质量数据的时间序列趋势分析是评估空气质量变化的常用工具，常用于评估当前排放管理计划的有效性。在油砂开发背景下使用该工具存在重大局限性，需要应用其他空气质量变化分析方法，以确保充分了解这种开发对空气质量的影响，从而能够采取适当的排放管理行动。
